UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4: best buys and captain picks

UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4 is played on Tuesday 10 and Wednesday 11 November, and all 18 clubs are in action, so there are no blanks to plan around. The transfers you make this week should be judged on the run from Matchday 4 to Matchday 6, the last three matchdays of the league phase, and not on the Tuesday and Wednesday fixtures alone. Three things shape the decision. Real Madrid have two home games in a row, against Paris FC and Inter, which is the main reason Linda Caicedo is the highest-projected player in the game for both matchdays. Manchester City have the most even run in the game: every one of their three fixtures is a good one. And two of the most-owned players in the game, Cata Coll and Aitana Bonmatí, project far below their price over all three matchdays. Every number below is on the UWCL Fantasy player picks page, and the UWCL Fantasy Matchday 3 preview covers the previous round.

UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4 programs: whose next three matchdays are worth owning

Barcelona still have the most expected goals of any club over the window, 8.95 from [H]Arsenal → [H]Servette → [A]Bayern München. The shape is uneven, though. Arsenal at home is a 60% win probability with a 29% clean sheet chance. Servette in Matchday 5 is the best attacking fixture any club has in the window, at 4.50 expected goals. The trip to Munich in Matchday 6 is the weakest of the three. That makes Barcelona a team to hold through Matchday 5 rather than a team to buy into now.

Manchester City are the program to own. [A]Inter → [A]BK Häcken → [H]Austria Wien adds up to 8.34 expected goals and 1.25 expected clean sheets, second on both counts, and none of the three fixtures is a bad one. It opens with a 69% win probability away at Inter and ends with their best fixture of the three, Austria Wien at home. Chelsea have the most expected clean sheets of any club, 1.45 from [A]BK Häcken → [H]Paris Saint Germain → [A]Oud Heverlee Leuven. The trip to BK Häcken carries a 48% clean sheet chance, the highest of the matchday, and the PSG home game in Matchday 5 is the one to plan around rather than avoid.

Real Madrid are the two-matchday team. [H]Paris FC → [H]Inter → [A]Roma gives them 7.59 expected goals, and the first two games, both at home, carry most of it. The trip to Rome in Matchday 6 is where the run ends, so Real Madrid players bought now are worth two strong matchdays, with a natural point to sell before Matchday 6. Roma are the opposite case, a "sell into" team. They host Servette with an 85% win probability and 3.93 expected goals, the biggest attacking projection of Matchday 4, before [A]Benfica → [H]Real Madrid. Paris FC turn the other way: [A]Real Madrid → [H]HB Køge → [A]Servette starts away at Real Madrid and finishes with 3.00 expected goals away at Servette.

The table is sorted by 3-matchday expected goals. The 3-matchday CS column is a count of expected clean sheets from three games, not a percentage, and every club has exactly three fixtures in the window. Kick-off times are on the UWCL Fantasy schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind the win probabilities are on the UWCL market probabilities page.

Best UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4 goalkeepers

Hannah Hampton (5.5m, CHE) is the best goalkeeper over the window by a clear margin: 4.1 → 3.6 → 3.8, 11.5 over three matchdays, from [A]BK Häcken → [H]Paris Saint Germain → [A]Oud Heverlee Leuven. Matchday 4 is her best game, and the PSG home tie in Matchday 5 is still a 3.6. She is owned by 17% of managers.

Merle Frohms (5.0m, RMA) is the cheaper route into Real Madrid's two home games, [H]Paris FC → [H]Inter → [A]Roma, at 3.6 → 3.4 → 2.9, 9.9 over three matchdays. She is owned by 3% and only drops off in the Roma game. For the cheapest slot, Lena Pauels (4.0m, BEN) projects 3.9 at home to Austria Wien, the second-best goalkeeper score of the matchday. Her program, [H]Austria Wien → [H]Roma → [A]HB Køge, gets harder after that (3.9 → 2.7 → 2.8, 9.4 over three matchdays), so treat her as a bench keeper who starts this week.

Best UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4 defenders

Ellie Carpenter (5.0m, CHE) has the highest defender projection of Matchday 4, 5.3 at BK Häcken, and her run stays good: 5.3 → 3.9 → 4.1, 13.3 over three matchdays from [A]BK Häcken → [H]Paris Saint Germain → [A]Oud Heverlee Leuven. Only 15% own her, and at 5.0m she is the best defender per million in the game this matchday.

Alex Greenwood (6.0m, MCI) is the one place where this matchday and the next three disagree. She scores less than Carpenter in Matchday 4 (3.9), but 3.9 → 5.2 → 4.6, 13.7 over three matchdays from [A]Inter → [A]BK Häcken → [H]Austria Wien is the most of any defender over the window. If you are buying one defender to keep until the end of the league phase, buy Greenwood. If you want the points this week, buy Carpenter. Jade Rose (5.0m, MCI) is the cheaper way into the same City defence and the same [A]Inter → [A]BK Häcken → [H]Austria Wien run, 3.4 → 4.6 → 4.0, 12.0 over three matchdays at 4% ownership, and her best games are the two after this one.

For Real Madrid's two home games, Eva Navarro (6.0m, RMA), at 4.5 → 4.6 → 2.8, 11.9 over three matchdays, and the differential Janou Levels (5.0m, RMA), at 4.3 → 4.6 → 2.7, 11.6 over three matchdays and 1% ownership, both follow [H]Paris FC → [H]Inter → [A]Roma. Both fall to around 2.7 in Rome, so they are two-matchday buys with Matchday 6 as the natural point to sell. Lucy Bronze (5.5m, 20% owned) is a fine hold for Matchday 4 at 4.5, but she falls to 3.0 against PSG, so she is not the Chelsea defender to buy now.

Best UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4 midfielders

Linda Caicedo (8.5m, RMA) is the best player in the game over the next two matchdays: 5.6 → 5.9 → 3.9, 15.4 over three matchdays from [H]Paris FC → [H]Inter → [A]Roma. She projects 0.35 expected goals at home to Paris FC, and the Inter game after that is her best fixture of the window. The run, not this week alone, is why she is the buy of the round. If you are buying one premium midfielder, buy Caicedo now rather than next week, because both of her best games are in the next two matchdays.

Alyssa Thompson (7.5m, CHE) gives you the Chelsea attack at 7.5m: 5.2 → 3.7 → 4.1, 13.0 over three matchdays from [A]BK Häcken → [H]Paris Saint Germain → [A]Oud Heverlee Leuven. She projects 0.38 expected goals at BK Häcken, and only 8% own her. Clara Mateo (7.5m, PFC) (21% owned) is the hold of the group. Her best game is the last one, 4.3 → 3.9 → 4.8, 13.0 over three matchdays, because Paris FC's program, [A]Real Madrid → [H]HB Køge → [A]Servette, gets easier every matchday.

The hidden gem is Aoba Fujino (5.0m, MCI). At 5.0m and 2% ownership she projects 3.9 → 4.7 → 4.2, 12.8 over three matchdays from [A]Inter → [A]BK Häcken → [H]Austria Wien. That is within a point of Klara Bühl over the window, for 3.5m less. The risk is minutes: the model gives her 52 of them in Matchday 4, so check the UWCL predicted lineups before the deadline. The safer budget pick is Kaja Korosec (5.0m, PFC), who projects 83 minutes and 3.4 → 3.4 → 3.7, 10.5 over three matchdays from [A]Real Madrid → [H]HB Køge → [A]Servette.

Klara Bühl (8.5m, 35% owned) is a hold at 4.5 → 4.5 → 3.9, 12.9 over three matchdays; her Barcelona game in Matchday 6 is the only dip. Caroline Graham Hansen (9.7m, 58% owned) is also a hold for now. Her 5.0 against Servette in Matchday 5 is the fourth-best projection of that matchday, so you can wait a round on her and sell before the trip to Bayern. Manuela Giugliano (9.0m) projects 4.9 at home to Servette and then 2.7 and 2.6. She is a one-matchday pick, and the only good use for her is a Limitless squad (below).

Best UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4 forwards

Khadija Shaw (9.5m, MCI) is the forward to own for the rest of the league phase. She is the top-projected forward in every one of the next three matchdays, 4.7 → 5.2 → 5.1, 15.0 over three matchdays, from [A]Inter → [A]BK Häcken → [H]Austria Wien. She is Manchester City's penalty taker, and the model has her at 0.58 expected goals at Inter, the most of any player in Matchday 4. She is owned by 26%, against 68% for Ewa Pajor, who costs more and projects less in all three matchdays.

Felicia Schröder (7.6m, RMA) is the value forward for Real Madrid's two home games: 4.2 → 4.7 → 3.2, 12.1 over three matchdays from [H]Paris FC → [H]Inter → [A]Roma, with 0.38 expected goals against Paris FC and 7% ownership. Like the Real Madrid defenders, she is worth two matchdays, and Matchday 6 is the point to move her on. Pernille Harder (7.6m, 23% owned, 4.2 → 4.0 → 3.6, 11.8 over three matchdays) is a comfortable hold.

For a cheap third forward, Momoko Tanikawa (5.0m, BAY) projects 3.2 → 3.0 → 2.9, 9.1 over three matchdays from [A]Paris Saint Germain → [A]Austria Wien → [H]Barcelona and starts in the model (69 minutes). Alessia Russo (10.5m, 47% owned) is the opposite of a sell: Arsenal's [A]Barcelona → [H]OL Lyonnes → [A]Inter gets easier every matchday, she takes Arsenal's penalties, and her 4.1 → 4.2 → 4.5, 12.8 over three matchdays is flat and dependable. Keep her.

Who to captain in UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4

Linda Caicedo (8.5m, RMA) is the captain, with [H]Paris FC → [H]Inter → [A]Roma ahead of her. Her 5.6 is the highest projection of the matchday, and with Inter at home to come she is the top captain option in Matchday 5 as well (5.9). Ellie Carpenter (5.3) and Alyssa Thompson (5.2) are the next two, both on the strength of Chelsea's 48% clean sheet chance at BK Häcken. Khadija Shaw (4.7) is the steady choice if you do not own Caicedo.

Plan the armband across the window rather than this week alone. Caicedo covers Matchdays 4 and 5. Shaw is the best captain in Matchday 6 (5.1, at home to Austria Wien), as Real Madrid travel to Rome. Owning both Caicedo and Shaw gives you a top captain option in every remaining league-phase matchday, and that is the strongest case for moving money into those two.

Who to sell before UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4

Cata Coll (6.0m, BAR) is the clearest sale. She is owned by 49% of managers, but the model has Gemma Font in Barcelona's goal for Matchday 4 and Cata Coll at 9 projected minutes. Her projection is 0.3 → 1.3 → 0.7, 2.3 over three matchdays, across Barcelona's [H]Arsenal → [H]Servette → [A]Bayern München. Why now: this is not about Barcelona's fixtures, which are good. She does not project to start in any of the three, so selling now and selling next week give you the same thing, minus a week of points. Hampton costs less and projects 4.1 this week. Check the UWCL predicted lineups before the deadline in case Barcelona's goalkeeper news changes.

Aitana Bonmatí (10.4m, BAR) is the second sale. She is owned by 25% and costs 10.4m, but the model gives her only about 36 to 40 minutes a game, which gives 2.0 → 3.0 → 2.2, 7.2 over three matchdays from [H]Arsenal → [H]Servette → [A]Bayern München. Why now: her minutes do not build within the window, and selling her pays for Caicedo with 1.9m to spare.

Selma Bacha (5.0m, OLL) is a swap rather than a disaster. [A]Juventus is a decent fixture, a 62% win probability and a 37% clean sheet chance, and 3.7 is a reasonable score. But Arsenal away follows in Matchday 5, and Carpenter costs the same 5.0m and projects more in all three matchdays (13.3 to 9.8). Why now: the gap is biggest in Matchday 4 itself, 5.3 against 3.7, so the swap pays from the first week.

Ewa Pajor (10.7m, BAR) is the premium to move on if you need money for Shaw. Her program, [H]Arsenal → [H]Servette → [A]Bayern München, is a good one, the Arsenal game is not a bad fixture, and her 3.8 is a respectable return. But Shaw costs 1.2m less and projects more in each of the three matchdays, 15.0 to 11.6 in total. Why now: there is no matchday in the window where Pajor is ahead, so waiting gives you nothing back.

Best Limitless team for UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4

Limitless removes the budget for one matchday, so the squad below is built only for Matchday 4. It respects the three-per-club limit and a legal 1-4-5-1 formation, and it is the best eleven the model finds this week. It is the one place in this preview where the next three matchdays do not matter, because the squad reverts afterwards.

The eleven projects 51.7 points before the captain, and 57.3 with Linda Caicedo as captain. The bench is Alberte Vingum (HB Køge, 3.7), Alex Greenwood (Manchester City, 3.9), Pernille Harder (Bayern München, 4.2), Alessia Russo (Arsenal, 4.1). Hannah Hampton is left out only because Chelsea's three slots go to Carpenter, Bronze and Thompson. For a solve that includes your own squad, use the UWCL Fantasy optimal teams page, and for more articles visit the UWCL Fantasy preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Linda Caicedo. She projects 5.6 at home to Paris FC, the highest of any player, and she is the top captain option in Matchday 5 too, at home to Inter. Ellie Carpenter (5.3) and Alyssa Thompson (5.2) are the alternatives.

Which budget defenders are best for UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Ellie Carpenter at 5.0m projects 5.3, the best defender score of the matchday, with [A]BK Häcken → [H]Paris Saint Germain → [A]Oud Heverlee Leuven to follow. Jade Rose, at the same 5.0m, is next with 12.0 points over the three matchdays, and her best games come after this one.

Should I sell Cata Coll before UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Yes, unless Barcelona's goalkeeper news changes before the deadline. The model has Gemma Font starting and Cata Coll at 9 minutes, which gives her 0.3 points in Matchday 4. Hannah Hampton is cheaper and projects 4.1.

Who are the best differentials for UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

Aoba Fujino (2% owned, 12.8 points over three matchdays at 5.0m) and Janou Levels (1% owned, 4.3 in Matchday 4 and 4.6 in Matchday 5). Alyssa Thompson, owned by 8%, has the third-highest projection of the matchday.

What is the best Limitless team for UWCL Fantasy Matchday 4?

An eleven built around three Chelsea players (Carpenter, Bronze and Thompson), Real Madrid's Caicedo, Navarro and Levels, and Khadija Shaw up front, with Caicedo as captain. It projects 57.3 points including the captain.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.