Super Manager Runde 8: best buys and differentials

Super Manager Runde 8 preview: best buys, budget picks and differentials

Super Manager Runde 8 is decided on Thursday night. FC København host AC Horsens at 19:00 on 11 September — that is both the first kickoff and the deadline for the round — and it is the most one-sided fixture in the Superliga this week: FCK are 72.7% to win with 2.48 expected goals and a 43.4% clean sheet chance, while Horsens are 10.0% to win with 0.83 expected goals. Eleven of the twenty highest-projected players in the round wear FCK blue.

That sounds simple. It is not, and this is where Runde 8 is actually won. You may only field four players from one club, and the two obvious FCK names are already in more than a quarter of all teams. So the round comes down to three decisions: which two extra FCK slots you use, which cheap non-FCK players fill the other seven spots, and — the one most managers get wrong — recognising that the FCK spike lasts exactly one round.

Runde 8 fixtures: one blowout, five coin flips

The full round runs Thursday to Sunday. These are the model’s numbers per team, pulled from the same data behind the Super Manager market probabilities page:

Two things stand out. AC Horsens are the clear avoid — an 8.4% clean sheet chance is the worst defensive projection of the round, and their Runde 9 fixture at home to AGF is only a 20.8% win. And AGF are the quiet team to load up on: they are actually favourites on the road at Nordsjælland, and then get [A]ACH → [H]SØN at 53.4% and 63.1% win probability. That is the best two-round run in the league. Check the full sequence on the Super Manager schedule before you spend on a one-round pick.

Goalkeepers for Runde 8

Diant Ramaj (5.19m, FCK) is the standout, projected at 85k for the round — 27k clear of the next goalkeeper — on the back of that 43.2% clean sheet chance against Horsens. He is owned by only 7.1% of managers, which is remarkable for the best-projected keeper in the round. If you can spare an FCK slot on a goalkeeper, this is the cheapest way to buy the fixture.

The budget answer is Paul Izzo (3.56m, RAN) at 58k with a 28.0% clean sheet chance at home to OB. He is the second-best keeper this round at two-thirds of Ramaj’s price, and unlike the FCK options he keeps producing: 58k → 58k → 57k → 65k across Runde 8 to 11, a weighted six-round score of 211k. At 2.1% ownership he is a genuine differential in a position most managers treat as an afterthought.

If you need the very cheapest slot, Diego Kochen (2.74m, LYN) projects 50k with a 25.7% clean sheet chance against Sønderjyske — a points-per-million of 18.4, the best in the position. Kasper Kiilerich (VFF, 21.9% owned) is not a mistake at 55k, but Izzo gives you more for almost the same money.

Defenders for Runde 8: the FCK block, and how to pay for it

Felix Beijmo (4.87m, FCK) is the top-projected defender in Runde 8 at 92k, on 88 predicted minutes and a 42.5% clean sheet chance. At 20.5% ownership he is semi-template rather than a differential, so if you want the same bet with less company, Marcos Lopez (5.00m, FCK) projects 80k on a 38.1% clean sheet chance and is owned by just 5.3%, and Gabriel Pereira (4.24m, FCK) gives you 74k for 4.2m at 4.0% ownership.

Be honest with yourself about what these are. Beijmo’s projection collapses from 92k to 48k in Runde 9, and Pereira’s from 74k to 32k. These are one-round defenders. Beijmo’s transfer fee is about 0.05m of your 60.5m budget, so buying him for a single fixture and selling him again on Sunday is a completely rational move — just plan it that way from the start rather than discovering it in Runde 9.

The budget defender to target is Jens Martin Gammelby (3.62m, SIF) at 62k. He plays 83 predicted minutes, and crucially he is Silkeborg’s penalty taker with a 93% share of their spot kicks — a defender on penalties is one of the rarest edges in the game. He is owned by 3.1% and his weighted six-round score of 210k is the third-best of any defender.

Two more cheap options worth knowing: Martin André Sjølstad (2.69m, RAN) projects 52k for a points-per-million of 19.4, the best value in the position, and Daniel Høegh (3.10m, RAN) gives you 49k on 88 predicted minutes and a 26.7% clean sheet chance. They are owned by 0.5% and 3.4% respectively.

One defender to keep rather than sell: Runar Robinsønn Norheim (4.12m, FCN) is the most-owned defender in the game at 34.1%, and although his 62k this round is unremarkable, his run reads 62k → 72k → 97k → 80k. His weighted score of 274k is the best of any defender in Super Manager. Selling him for a one-round FCK pick and buying him back is a losing trade.

Midfielders for Runde 8: two premiums, and the best value in the game

Mohamed Elyounoussi (8.46m, FCK) is the highest-projected player in Runde 8 at 145k. He is projected for 0.42 goals and 0.30 assists in the fixture, takes 93% of FCK’s penalties, and plays 88 minutes. He is also owned by 52.6% of teams — the most-owned player in the game — so owning him protects your rank rather than improving it. He holds his value beyond this round too (145k → 105k → 115k), which is why he is a hold and not a one-round rental.

Robert (5.99m, FCK) is the better value version at 131k for six million, a points-per-million of 21.9 against Elyounoussi’s 17.1. At 29.0% ownership he is still short of half the field. If you are only taking one FCK midfielder, the numbers say Robert.

Now the part that decides leagues. Lucas Riisgaard (2.72m, SIF) projects 71.6k this round for a points-per-million of 26.3 — the best in the entire game — and he is owned by 0.5%. Seventy-two thousand points from a 2.7m midfielder, on 72 predicted minutes, is the kind of pick that funds an FCK premium elsewhere in your side. His weighted six-round score is 244k, so this is not a one-week trick either.

Three more midfield differentials with real numbers behind them:

Mahmoud takes 91% of Randers’ penalties and plays 82 minutes; Seydi takes 100% of Sønderjyske’s. Jørgensen is the AGF route if you do not want to pay for Kristian Arnstad — and with AGF’s Runde 9 and 10 fixtures, his 76k and 87k in those rounds are why his three-round total is the highest of the four.

If you do want the AGF premium, Kristian Arnstad (6.84m, AGF) projects 69k now but 85k and 104k in the next two rounds, takes 92% of their penalties, and carries a weighted score of 277k — the best of any midfielder outside the two FCK names. James Bogere (2.73m, AGF) is the cheap version of the same bet: 71k this round, 243k over three, a points-per-million of 25.9, and 17.8% ownership.

Forwards for Runde 8: Ross now, Bech and Lind for the run

Oliver Ross (3.94m, SIF) is the best forward in Runde 8 at 83k, projected for 0.36 goals and 0.18 assists at home to Viborg on 73 minutes. His points-per-million of 20.9 is the best of any forward, his weighted score of 263k is third-best in the position, and he is owned by 4.4%. If you buy one forward this week, buy this one.

Dorian Hanza (4.56m, VFF) at 78k and Charly Horneman (4.02m, VFF) at 73k are both fine, and Viborg travel to Silkeborg as slight favourites at 39.1%. Hanza is already 32.1% owned; Horneman at 13.2% gives you nearly the same projection for half a million less.

Looking past Thursday, the two forwards with the strongest runs are Tobias Bech (7.53m, AGF) — 73k → 88k → 105k, weighted 287k — and Alexander Lind (6.24m, FCN), whose 63k this round undersells a weighted score of 297k, the highest of any forward in the game. Neither is the best pick for Runde 8 alone. Both are the right pick if you would rather make one transfer instead of three.

Budget forwards: Oskar Fenger (2.93m, BIF) at 62k with 79% of Brøndby’s penalties and a points-per-million of 21.2, and Osaze De Rosario (3.50m, SØN) at 61k with an ownership of 0.1% — effectively nobody owns him. Isak Snaer Thorvaldsson (4.01m, LYN) projects 62k and takes 81% of Lyngby’s penalties, though Lyngby’s Runde 10 trip to Brøndby (16.7% win) means he is a two-round buy at most.

Who to sell before Runde 8

Friday Etim (5.69m, FCM) is the clearest sell in the game. He is the second-most-owned player in Super Manager at 38.2%, and the model has him coming off the bench — 29 predicted minutes, 26k for the round. His projection does not clear 35k in any of the next five rounds. That is 5.7m of your budget doing almost nothing.

Frederik Emmery (3.81m, AGF) is worse in relative terms: 10 predicted minutes and 11k for the round, on 18.9% ownership. AGF have the best fixture run in the league and there are four better ways to take that exposure, starting with Jørgensen and Bogere above.

Oliver Bundgaard Kristensen (2.48m, VFF) is owned by 30.7% and trending the wrong way: 38k → 30k → 26k → 26k → 15k. He is cheap enough that the fee barely registers, so there is no reason to hold a declining projection.

Two milder downgrades: Olti Hyseni (4.17m, BIF, 29.0% owned) projects 53k on only 52 predicted minutes, and Prince Junior (5.14m, FCN, 25.3% owned) 46k on 51 minutes. Neither is a disaster, but both are five-figure prices for sub-60-minute roles.

One warning on buying the big fixture: Viktor Dadason (6.06m, FCK) looks like the obvious way to take FCK attacking exposure, but the model has him at 29 predicted minutes and outside the starting eleven. Use Elyounoussi or Robert instead, and confirm it yourself on the Super Manager predicted lineups page before the Thursday deadline.

How to build for Runde 8

The shape that makes sense this week: take two to four FCK players for the Horsens fixture — Elyounoussi or Robert plus Ramaj and one of Beijmo, Lopez or Pereira — and fund it with the sub-4m tier. Riisgaard at 2.72m, Themsen at 2.94m, Gammelby at 3.62m, Sjølstad at 2.69m and Ross at 3.94m are all projected 52k or better this round, and four of the five are owned by under 5% of managers.

Everyone in your league will own Elyounoussi. Almost nobody will own Riisgaard, Seydi and De Rosario. That gap is the round. Cross-check your final eleven against the live optimal Super Manager teams solver, which builds the highest-scoring legal squad for the round against your budget and the four-per-club cap, and compare individual options on the Super Manager player picks page.

One planning note for after the whistle: the FCK premium ends here. Beijmo, Lopez, Pereira, Suzuki, Sørensen, Kral and Clem all lose more than half their projection in Runde 9, when FCK travel to Brøndby at 41.3%. AGF, Randers and Nordsjælland are the teams whose numbers rise in Runde 9 and 10. Plan the exit before you make the entry.

More rounds of analysis in the Super Manager preview hub, and if you want the context for where these prices came from, the Super Manager Runde 7 preview and the Runde 6 preview cover the last two weeks. Full fixture times for the rest of the autumn are on the Super Manager schedule page.

FAQ

Who should I buy for Super Manager Runde 8?

Mohamed Elyounoussi (8.46m, FCK) is the highest-projected player in Runde 8 at 145k, followed by Robert (5.99m, FCK) at 131k and Felix Beijmo (4.87m, FCK) at 92k — all three from the FC København side that hosts AC Horsens as 72.7% favourites. You may only own four players from one club, so the best supporting buys are Oliver Ross (3.94m, SIF) at 83k and Diant Ramaj (5.19m, FCK) at 85k in goal.

Is there a captain in Super Manager Runde 8?

No — Super Manager has no captain, so no player’s score is doubled. Your eleven starters all count once, which means the round is decided by how much total projected value you fit inside the 60.5m budget rather than by a single captaincy call. That is why points-per-million matters more here than in games with a captain.

Which budget players are best for Super Manager Runde 8?

Lucas Riisgaard (2.72m, SIF) is the best value pick in the game with a points-per-million of 26.3 and a 71.6k projection, on 0.5% ownership. Mike Themsen (2.94m, RAN) at 62k, Oskar Fenger (2.93m, BIF) at 62k, Martin André Sjølstad (2.69m, RAN) at 52k and James Bogere (2.73m, AGF) at 71k round out the cheap tier that funds the FCK premiums.

Best differentials for Super Manager Runde 8?

Osaze De Rosario (3.50m, SØN) at 61k and 0.1% ownership is the lowest-owned useful player in the round. Ismail Seydi (4.00m, SØN) at 72k and 0.3%, Lucas Riisgaard (2.72m, SIF) at 0.5%, and Marcos Lopez (5.00m, FCK) at 80k and 5.3% all combine top-tier projections with ownership under 6%.

Should I sell Friday Etim before Runde 8?

Yes. Friday Etim (5.69m, FCM) is projected at just 26k for Runde 8 on 29 predicted minutes as a substitute, and his projection stays under 35k for the next five rounds — despite being the second-most-owned player in Super Manager at 38.2%. Frederik Emmery (3.81m, AGF, 10 predicted minutes) and Oliver Bundgaard Kristensen (2.48m, VFF, declining from 38k to 15k) are the other two clear sells.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool