Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 6: best buys and captains
Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 6 preview: captain picks, differentials and who to sell
Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 6 comes after a three-week gap in the calendar. The deadline is Saturday 10 October at 12:30, and the round is headlined by Inter - Parma: Inter carry an 84% win probability and 3.03 expected goals, the strongest numbers any side has this week. But the transfer that matters is the one that still looks good in Gameweeks 7 and 8. With one free transfer a week, every move below is judged on the next three rounds first and this round second.
Everything here is built from the TheFantasyTool model's projections. For the full ranked pool, open the Sofascore Serie A player picks. To test a squad over a multi-round window, use the Sofascore Serie A optimal teams solver.
The programs: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning
Inter have the best three-Gameweek run in the game: [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO adds up to 7.23 expected goals and 1.27 expected clean sheets. Parma is the one extremely good fixture. The Bologna and Fiorentina games that follow are ordinary rather than bad, so Inter assets are holds, not one-week rentals. Inter have also been the best attack in the league so far, at 2.75 xG per game.
Juventus have the best defensive program. [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC gives them 1.37 expected clean sheets, the most of any side over the three rounds, and they have allowed just 0.45 xG per game this season, the lowest in Serie A. Napoli ([H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM, 5.32 xG) and Atalanta ([H]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]FRC, 5.16 xG) round out the top attacking runs. Lazio's [H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR is the sleeper: 1.05 expected clean sheets, with two home games against Monza and Parma.
The runs to avoid are Parma ([A]INT → [H]TOR → [A]LAZ, 2.50 xG, the weakest in the game), Lecce ([H]BOL → [A]UDI → [H]JUV) and Venezia ([A]ATA → [H]NAP → [A]GEN). Parma have produced only 0.67 xG per game this season, the lowest in the league, and they face Inter and Lazio away. Every team has three fixtures in the window, so there are no blanks or doubles distorting the totals below. The fixture list itself is on the Sofascore Serie A schedule.
| Team | GW6 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW6-8) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | [H]PAR | 84% | 3.03 | 54% | [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO | 7.23 | 1.27 |
| Napoli | [H]FRC | 66% | 2.25 | 38% | [H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM | 5.32 | 1.03 |
| Juventus | [A]CGL | 61% | 1.82 | 46% | [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC | 5.29 | 1.37 |
| Atalanta | [H]VEN | 60% | 2.06 | 35% | [H]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]FRC | 5.16 | 0.92 |
| Como | [H]ROM | 37% | 1.47 | 24% | [H]ROM → [A]FIO → [H]SAS | 5.11 | 0.91 |
| Roma | [A]COM | 36% | 1.43 | 23% | [A]COM → [H]GEN → [A]NAP | 5.10 | 0.98 |
| Milan | [A]SAS | 52% | 1.74 | 35% | [A]SAS → [H]ATA → [A]UDI | 4.92 | 0.97 |
| Lazio | [H]MON | 57% | 1.72 | 42% | [H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR | 4.25 | 1.05 |
| Torino | [H]UDI | 41% | 1.38 | 32% | [H]UDI → [A]PAR → [H]MON | 4.18 | 1.02 |
| Udinese | [A]TOR | 30% | 1.14 | 25% | [A]TOR → [H]LEC → [H]MIL | 4.03 | 0.84 |
| Bologna | [A]LEC | 50% | 1.60 | 36% | [A]LEC → [H]INT → [A]CGL | 3.94 | 0.80 |
| Fiorentina | [A]GEN | 41% | 1.40 | 31% | [A]GEN → [H]COM → [A]INT | 3.58 | 0.60 |
| Frosinone | [A]NAP | 14% | 0.97 | 10% | [A]NAP → [H]SAS → [A]ATA | 3.50 | 0.48 |
| Sassuolo | [H]MIL | 22% | 1.06 | 18% | [H]MIL → [A]FRC → [A]COM | 3.47 | 0.53 |
| Genoa | [H]FIO | 30% | 1.16 | 25% | [H]FIO → [A]ROM → [H]VEN | 3.38 | 0.71 |
| Monza | [A]LAZ | 18% | 0.86 | 18% | [A]LAZ → [H]CGL → [A]TOR | 3.25 | 0.70 |
| Cagliari | [H]JUV | 15% | 0.77 | 16% | [H]JUV → [A]MON → [H]BOL | 3.12 | 0.69 |
| Venezia | [A]ATA | 18% | 1.05 | 13% | [A]ATA → [H]NAP → [A]GEN | 3.08 | 0.52 |
| Lecce | [H]BOL | 23% | 1.02 | 20% | [H]BOL → [A]UDI → [H]JUV | 2.72 | 0.58 |
| Parma | [A]INT | 4% | 0.62 | 5% | [A]INT → [H]TOR → [A]LAZ | 2.50 | 0.53 |
The bookmaker-implied match odds behind these numbers are on the Sofascore Serie A market probabilities page.
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 6
Christos Mandas (5.1m, LAZ) is the goalkeeper to own. His program is [H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR. He leads every keeper both this round (5.2) and over three rounds (15.1), and only 7.7% of managers have him. The Juventus trip is the week to plan around, but two home games against the Monza and Parma attacks outweigh it. His trajectory runs 5.2 → 4.4 → 5.5.
Guglielmo Vicario (5.7m, JUV) is the clean-sheet pick. Juventus's [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC is the best three-round defensive run in the game, and Vicario projects 4.8 → 4.6 → 4.9: a flat line you can hold and stop thinking about. For a cheaper option, Maduka Okoye (5.1m, UDI) has [A]TOR → [H]LEC → [H]MIL and 14.2 points over the three rounds, level with keepers who cost a million more.
One ranking disagreement is worth knowing. Elia Caprile (5.6m, CGL) is only 4.6 this week against Juventus, but his three-round total of 14.8 is second among keepers. He is a buy from Gameweek 7, not now.
Best defenders for Gameweek 6
This round and the three-round horizon disagree at the top. Alessandro Bastoni (7.1m, INT) is the best defender this week, at 6.5 against Parma. Gleison Bremer (7.2m, JUV) leads over three rounds with 16.9 to Bastoni's 16.7, and his line is flatter. Bremer runs 5.8 → 5.4 → 5.7 on [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC, while Bastoni drops 6.5 → 5.0 → 5.2 on [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Bremer. If you already own Bastoni, there is no reason to move him.
Nuno Tavares (5.9m, LAZ) is the value defender. He is third over three rounds with 16.3, and projects 6.4 this week, second only to Bastoni among defenders, for 1.2m less than the premiums. Lazio's [H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR explains it: Gameweek 7 at Juventus dips to 4.1, then the Parma game brings him back to 5.8. He is 8.1% owned.
Mario Hermoso (7.0m, ROM) is the "buy for next week" pick. Roma's [A]COM → [H]GEN → [A]NAP makes Gameweek 7 against Genoa his best week at 6.3, and his six-round weighted score of 19.1 sits just behind Bremer's 19.4. Amir Rrahmani (6.8m, NAP) matches Hermoso's 16.1 over three rounds on [H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM, and he gets the Frosinone home game first.
On a budget, Mehmet Zeki Celik (5.6m, JUV) gives you a share of the best defensive program in the game ([A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC), at 14.5 points over three rounds. Paired with Vicario or Bremer, he doubles up on the same Juventus clean sheet, and his own numbers justify owning him. A cheaper defender with a real three-round case is Mergim Vojvoda (5.0m, UDI), whose [A]TOR → [H]LEC → [H]MIL peaks at 5.0 in Gameweek 7 against Lecce.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 6
Christian Pulisic (7.0m, MIL) is the hidden gem of the round. At 7.3 he is the top-projected player in the whole game this week, and only 6.0% of managers own him. His program is [A]SAS → [H]ATA → [A]UDI and the line runs 7.3 → 6.7 → 6.1, so the buy lasts all three weeks rather than one. His penalty share is 81%, which lifts his ceiling. The risk is minutes: he has played only 114 league minutes so far, producing 0.98 xGI per 90. Check the Sofascore Serie A predicted lineups before the deadline.
Nico Paz (8.9m, COM) is the template pick at 52.8% ownership, and the numbers back it. He runs 6.0 → 6.2 → 6.5 over [H]ROM → [A]FIO → [H]SAS, rising as Como's fixtures ease. Owning him protects your rank. Leaving him out is a bet that the players below outscore him, and over three weeks they mostly do not.
Mattia Zaccagni (6.7m, LAZ) is the mid-price pick. He is on 17.4 points over three rounds on [H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR, takes 88% of Lazio's penalties, and has produced 0.71 xGI per 90 this season. He is 6.7% owned. Piotr Zielinski (7.0m, INT) is the differential route into Inter at 3.1% ownership. He projects 6.7 against Parma and 17.1 over [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO, and he is on Inter penalties. That out-scores Nicolo Barella (7.9m) over the same window, for 0.9m less.
Giacomo Calo (5.2m, FRC) is the budget midfielder, and the most interesting cheap player in the game. He projects 16.9 over three rounds on [A]NAP → [H]SAS → [A]ATA and holds that level for six rounds: 5.5 → 6.2 → 5.2 → 6.2 → 5.9 → 5.5. That makes him a set-and-forget hold, not a rotation play. He takes 89% of Frosinone's penalties, and only 1.4% of managers own him. Franco Mastantuono (5.7m, FIO) is the other cheap option at 15.5 over three rounds, and he is also on penalties.
Best forwards for Gameweek 6
Paulo Dybala (7.7m, ROM) is the best forward in the game on any horizon that matters. His program is [A]COM → [H]GEN → [A]NAP, and his 21.9 points over three rounds is the highest total of any player. His trajectory is 7.1 → 8.7 → 6.1. The Genoa home game in Gameweek 7 is the best single-player projection anywhere in the next three rounds. He has produced 1.16 xGI per 90 this season. At 24.8% ownership he is a pick to make now, before the Genoa week, not during it.
Marcus Thuram (8.1m, INT) is the better-value Inter forward. He projects 6.7 against Parma and 16.9 over [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO. That is slightly more than Lautaro Martinez (16.6), for 2.3m less. He is 8.2% owned, against Lautaro's 61.3%.
Giorgi Kvernadze (4.2m, FRC) is the budget forward, with the best points per million of any forward in the game. He is on 15.2 over three rounds on [A]NAP → [H]SAS → [A]ATA. He projects 5.0 even in the Napoli away game, and peaks at 5.6 when Frosinone host Sassuolo. Frosinone's games have been open: they concede 2.02 xG per game, the third-most in the league. Kvernadze has produced 0.63 xGI per 90 in 437 minutes.
Captain picks for Gameweek 6
The captain scores double in Sofascore Serie A, so the armband goes on this round's highest ceiling. Christian Pulisic (7.0m, MIL) is #1 by the numbers, at 7.3 on [A]SAS → [H]ATA → [A]UDI. Kevin De Bruyne (7.2 at home to Frosinone) and Paulo Dybala (7.7m, ROM) (7.1 at Como, [A]COM → [H]GEN → [A]NAP) are close behind. If the predicted lineups do not have Pulisic starting, give Dybala the armband.
The Inter trio of Thuram (6.7), Zielinski (6.7) and Lautaro (6.6) is the safe, correlated option against the weakest attack in the league. Captaincy is also a reason to own Dybala. He is the clear captain for Gameweek 7, at 8.7 against Genoa, and a top-three option again in Gameweek 8, so buying him now covers the armband for two of the next three weeks.
Who to sell before Gameweek 6
Rasmus Højlund (7.4m, NAP) is the clearest sale, and the time is now: there is no better week to wait for. Napoli's [H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM starts with their kindest fixture, and he still projects only 4.8 in it, less than Kvernadze at 4.2m. After that he falls to 4.2, then 3.2 when Roma visit. He has produced 0.27 xGI per 90 this season, and 12.5% of managers own him. Selling him for Kvernadze saves 3.2m and gains three points over the three rounds.
Kevin De Bruyne (7.6m, NAP) is a sale you can wait a round on. Frosinone at home is a very good fixture, and 7.2 makes him a genuine captain option this week. But his line then runs 5.7 → 4.6 → 4.9, so plan to move him on before Gameweek 7, not now. The same numbers make him a poor buy: 23.7% of managers own him, for one good week.
Lautaro Martinez (10.4m, INT) is not a sale on form. He projects 6.6 this week and has produced 1.20 xGI per 90 this season. But after Parma he projects 5.0 → 5.0, no more than cheaper Inter options like Thuram. If you need funds for Dybala or Pulisic, swapping Lautaro for Thuram is the sideways move that frees 2.3m. Doing it this week keeps the Parma fixture. If you do not need the money, you can wait.
Donyell Malen (8.6m, ROM) is flagged as unavailable, but his return date of 25 September falls before this deadline, so do not panic-sell him. His Gameweek 7 projection against Genoa is 6.3. Mike Maignan (6.0m, MIL) is the most-owned keeper at 32.4%, and he is on 13.6 over three rounds. Mandas out-projects him for 0.9m less, but the gap is not worth a transfer on its own.
More analysis for this game is collected in the Sofascore Serie A preview hub. For the same approach applied to another league, read the Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5 preview, or browse our fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 6?
Christian Pulisic is the top captain pick, at 7.3 projected points away at Sassuolo. Kevin De Bruyne (7.2) and Paulo Dybala (7.1) are close behind. If Pulisic is not in the predicted starting XI, captain Dybala, who is also the clear Gameweek 7 captain at 8.7 against Genoa.
Which budget players are best for Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 6?
Giorgi Kvernadze (4.2m, FRC) and Giacomo Calo (5.2m, FRC) are the best budget picks. Over Gameweeks 6-8, Kvernadze projects 15.2 and Calo 16.9, and Calo is Frosinone's penalty taker. Mergim Vojvoda (5.0m, UDI) is a cheap defender with a solid three-round program.
Should I sell Rasmus Højlund before Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 6?
Yes. He projects only 4.8 even against Frosinone, less than the 4.2m Kvernadze, and he falls to 3.2 by Gameweek 8 when Napoli host Roma. There is no better week to wait for.
Which team has the best fixtures for Sofascore Serie A Gameweeks 6-8?
Inter have the best attacking run, at 7.23 expected goals over Parma (h), Bologna (a) and Fiorentina (h). Juventus have the best defensive run, at 1.37 expected clean sheets over Cagliari (a), Lazio (h) and Lecce (a).
Who are the best differentials for Sofascore Serie A Gameweek 6?
Christian Pulisic (6.0% owned) is the top-projected player of the round. Piotr Zielinski (3.1%) is the low-owned route into Inter's Parma fixture, and Christos Mandas (7.7%) is the best goalkeeper over the next three Gameweeks.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.