Premier Manager Runde 4: captain picks and best buys

Premier Manager Runde 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Premier Manager Runde 4 is decided by one fixture that towers over the rest of the card, and by what you do with the eight or nine squad spots everybody else is also filling. Chelsea host Hull City with a 79% win probability, 2.72 expected goals and a 49% clean sheet chance — the strongest single fixture in the round by a distance. Every model number below comes from the live projection set pulled on 10 September, after this week’s lineup update, and the round holds a full programme: all 20 clubs play, so there is no blank to plan around.

The obvious part of that is easy. The part that decides your league is the rest of the squad — which cheap defender to rotate in for one round, which mid-priced midfielder is being ignored, and which popular name to sell now rather than in two rounds’ time. Cross-check everything here against the live Premier Manager player picks before the deadline.

Runde 4 fixtures: where the points are

Chelsea - Hull City is the round. Chelsea are projected for 2.72 goals against a Hull side the model gives a 7% win probability and a 7% clean sheet chance — the lowest of any team in the round. Liverpool at home to Fulham is the second-best spot (66% win probability, 2.34 expected goals), and Arsenal away at Sunderland is the best clean-sheet fixture on the card at 50%.

The Manchester derby is the round’s trap. Manchester City away at Manchester United is close to a coin flip (44% against 31%) and neither side clears a 24% clean sheet chance, so it is a fixture to attack with a forward and to avoid entirely with defenders. The full card is on the Premier Manager schedule page, and the win and clean-sheet numbers behind it come from our market probabilities.

Look one step further and the picture inverts. Chelsea’s own programme cools immediately — [A]Brentford, [H]AFC Bournemouth, [A]Everton — while Manchester City’s takes off with [H]Sunderland in Runde 5 and [H]Ipswich Town in Runde 7, and Arsenal line up [H]Leeds United (53% clean sheet chance) and [H]Everton (54%) in Runde 6 and Runde 8. That is the planning story of this round: buy Chelsea for the spike, own Arsenal and Manchester City for the run.

Goalkeepers for Runde 4

Emiliano Martinez (4.6m, Chelsea) is the highest-projected keeper in the game for Runde 4 at 96k xP, and at 3.0% ownership he is a genuine differential in the position. A 49% clean sheet chance against the round’s weakest attack is the cleanest source of defensive points on the card, and his 20.87 points per million is the best figure of any keeper here.

If you want the keeper you can leave alone, it is David Raya (5.8m, Arsenal) — 89k xP now, and a six-round decay-weighted score of 295k that no other keeper approaches, built on Arsenal’s 50%, 53% and 54% clean-sheet fixtures in Runde 4, 6 and 8. Alisson Becker (4.7m, Liverpool) at 78k is the middle option behind Liverpool’s home tie with Fulham.

The budget route is Dean Henderson (3.6m, Crystal Palace) at 64k xP and 18.02 points per million. Crystal Palace host Ipswich Town with a 33% clean sheet chance, and the saving funds a premium forward elsewhere. Bart Verbruggen (4.7m, Brighton & Hove Albion) (70k) is the alternative if you prefer Brighton’s trip to Coventry City.

Best defenders to buy in Runde 4

The Chelsea back line owns this round and the model separates them by only a few thousand points, so buy on price rather than on name. Josh Acheampong (2.6m, Chelsea) is the pick of them: 100k xP for 2.6m, which is 38.84 points per million — the best figure of any defender in the game this round — at 1.6% ownership. Maxence Lacroix (3.1m, Chelsea) is marginally ahead on raw projection at 103k and is already owned by 14.8% of managers.

Reece James (4.1m, Chelsea) tops the position outright at 105k xP, and at 2.8% he is barely owned — the attacking return from full-back is what lifts him above the centre-backs. Jorrel Hato (3.2m, Chelsea) (86k) completes the group. Remember the cap: a maximum of four players from any one club, so a Chelsea block has to be chosen rather than accumulated — and each of these is a short-term buy, because the Chelsea programme drops away from Runde 5.

For the defender you keep, Gabriel (5.3m, Arsenal) is the answer: 92k xP now, a trajectory of 92k → 60k → 85k across Runde 4-6 and a weighted score of 268k, the highest of any defender in the game. Ezri Konsa (3.6m, Arsenal) (3.6m, 80k xP, weighted 216k) is the cheaper way into the same Arsenal clean sheets. Virgil van Dijk (5.1m, Liverpool) at 83k xP is a Runde 4 pick only — his projection falls to 35k by Runde 6.

The budget spot: Axel Disasi (2.5m, Crystal Palace) at 2.5m returns 63k xP and 25.00 points per million, and is owned by 0.4% of managers. The transfer fee on a defender that cheap is around 25k — nothing against a 33% clean sheet chance at home to Ipswich Town. Jannik Schuster (2.0m, Brentford) (2.0m, 50k xP) is the cheapest starter worth owning and carries a weighted score of 147k, which is remarkable at that price.

Midfield: the premium, the value and the gem

Cole Palmer (8.0m, Chelsea) is the best midfield pick in the game for Runde 4 at 183k xP, and the number that matters is his penalty share: the model has him on essentially all of Chelsea’s spot-kicks, on top of 0.67 expected goals and 0.40 expected assists for the round. At 6.2% ownership he is both the highest-ceiling midfielder and a differential, which is a rare combination. Morgan Rogers (5.9m, Chelsea) (158k xP, 15.1% owned) is the second Chelsea midfielder at roughly three-quarters of the price.

Cody Gakpo (6.9m, Liverpool) is the differential of the round in this position — 141k xP against Fulham at only 2.4% ownership, and he is on Liverpool’s penalties. Florian Wirtz (6.2m, Liverpool) (125k xP) is the same fixture at a lower price if you would rather not pay up. Pedro Neto (4.2m, Chelsea) deserves a line of his own: 120k xP for 4.2m is 28.27 points per million, and he is owned by 3.6%.

Hidden gem: Yéremi Pino (3.0m, Crystal Palace) at 3.0m projects 90k xP for Runde 4 — 29.72 points per million — and is owned by 0.7% of managers. Crystal Palace at home to Ipswich Town is a genuinely good fixture and almost nobody has him. Diego Gomez (3.2m, Brighton & Hove Albion) (3.2m, 87k xP) is the equivalent pick from Brighton’s trip to Coventry City.

Bukayo Saka (8.5m, Arsenal) is a buy for the horizon rather than for the round: 122k xP now, but a weighted score of 363k and only 3.6% ownership, which is startlingly low for a player with Arsenal’s Runde 6 and Runde 8 fixtures ahead of him. Marcus Tavernier (4.8m, AFC Bournemouth) (4.8m, 82k xP, weighted 254k) is the same idea two price brackets down. Check the predicted lineups for Premier Manager before committing to any rotation-risk midfielder.

Forwards and the best buys up front

Joao Pedro (7.9m, Chelsea) is the highest-projected player in the entire game for Runde 4 at 211k xP — 0.72 expected goals and 0.23 expected assists against the weakest defence on the card. He is owned by 27.6%, so he is not a differential, but leaving him out of Runde 4 is an active risk rather than a neutral choice.

Erling Haaland (14.6m, Manchester City) is the opposite case. His Runde 4 number (163k xP) is only third-best in the round because the Manchester derby is tight, but his trajectory across Runde 4-7 is 163k → 231k → 141k → 239k and his weighted score of 666k is the highest of any player in the game by a wide margin, driven by [H]Sunderland in Runde 5 and [H]Ipswich Town in Runde 7. He is a hold, and if you do not own him the case for buying now is the Runde 5 fixture rather than this one.

Alexander Isak (7.5m, Liverpool) (151k xP) is the third premium worth paying for, at home to Fulham. Below them, Nicolas Jackson (5.5m, Aston Villa) is the differential: 103k xP at 1.0% ownership, with Aston Villa at home to Nottingham Forest. Evanilson (4.6m, AFC Bournemouth) (4.6m, 92k xP, weighted 280k) is the mid-price forward with the better multi-round programme.

The bargain of the round anywhere on the board is Charalampos Kostoulas (2.6m, Brighton & Hove Albion): 100k xP for 2.6m, which is 39.26 points per million — the highest figure of any player in the game this round — at 5.1% ownership. Brighton are 51% favourites at Coventry City and he is projected to start. Buy him and spend the saving on a premium.

Who to captain in Premier Manager Runde 4

Your kaptajn scores double in Premier Manager, so the pick is the highest-projected player you own — and this round the top of the board is unusually clear.

Captain Joao Pedro. He leads the round by 28k xP over the next name and the fixture behind him is the best on the card. Cole Palmer is the alternative that also carries the penalty upside, and at 6.2% ownership captaining him is the differential play. Erling Haaland is third, and becomes the obvious armband again in Runde 5 when Manchester City host Sunderland and his projection rises to 231k — captaincy is a plan across rounds, not a single choice.

Who to sell before Runde 4

Maxim De Cuyper (2.8m, Brighton & Hove Albion) is the clearest sell in the game. He is owned by 37.2% of managers — the most-owned defender in Premier Manager — and his projection collapses after this round: 72k → 22k → 52k → 51k across Runde 4-7, for a weighted score of only 160k. Brighton’s programme turns hard with [H]Arsenal in Runde 5 and [A]Liverpool in Runde 8.

Ben White (3.3m, Arsenal) is the same problem at 32.4% ownership: 74k xP now, then 74k → 46k → 38k, and there are two better Arsenal defenders in front of him. If you want Arsenal’s clean sheets, hold Gabriel or Ezri Konsa instead.

Rayan Cherki (6.1m, Manchester City) at 19.5% ownership returns just 50k xP for 6.1m in the derby — the weakest value among the widely-owned midfielders. Robin Roefs (3.6m, Sunderland) (15.9% owned, 27k xP) faces Arsenal and then Manchester City. Harry Wilson (3.1m, Leeds United) (15.2% owned, 58k xP) is the fourth name on the list.

Two popular names to hold rather than sell: Bruno Fernandes (7.7m, Manchester United) and Bryan Mbeumo (6.9m, Manchester United) both look weak on this round alone (82k and 76k xP), but their weighted scores are 387k and 336k — the Manchester United run from Runde 5 to Runde 8 is one of the best in the game, and selling now means paying the fee twice to buy them back. Yoane Wissa (3.8m, Newcastle United) is in the same category: 77k this round, 122k in Runde 5 at home to Hull City.

Runde 4 transfer summary

• Buy for one round: Josh Acheampong, Reece James or Maxence Lacroix — the Chelsea defence against the weakest attack on the card, and cheap to move on afterwards.
• Buy and keep: Gabriel, Bukayo Saka and Erling Haaland — the three highest weighted scores in their positions.
• Best value: Charalampos Kostoulas at 2.6m and Yéremi Pino at 3.0m.
• Sell: Maxim De Cuyper, Ben White, Rayan Cherki.
• Captain: Joao Pedro.

The exact optimal eleven for this round, solved live against current prices and projections, is on the Premier Manager optimal teams page. Last round’s analysis is here: Premier Manager Runde 3 preview, and every round in the series is collected in the Premier Manager preview hub. New to the holdet.dk managerspil format? Start with our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Premier Manager Runde 4?

Joao Pedro — he is projected for 211k xP, the highest of any player in the game for Runde 4, with Chelsea at home to Hull City at a 79% win probability. Cole Palmer (183k xP, and on Chelsea’s penalties) is the differential alternative at 6.2% ownership, and Erling Haaland (163k xP) is third before he becomes the clear pick again in Runde 5.

Which budget defenders are best for Premier Manager Runde 4?

Josh Acheampong at 2.6m is the best value defender in the game this round: 100k xP and 38.84 points per million behind Chelsea’s 49% clean sheet chance. Axel Disasi (2.5m, 63k xP) and Jannik Schuster (2.0m, 50k xP) are the cheaper alternatives, and at those prices the 1% transfer fee is small enough that buying for a single round makes sense.

Should I sell Maxim De Cuyper before Runde 4?

Yes. He is the most-owned defender in Premier Manager at 37.2%, but his projection falls to 72k → 22k → 52k → 51k across Runde 4-7 for a weighted score of just 160k, and Brighton face Arsenal in Runde 5. Gabriel (weighted 268k) is the upgrade.

Best differentials for Premier Manager Runde 4?

Charalampos Kostoulas (2.6m, 100k xP, 5.1% owned) has the best points-per-million figure in the game at 39.26. Cody Gakpo (141k xP at 2.4%), Yéremi Pino (90k xP at 0.7%) and Nicolas Jackson (103k xP at 1.0%) are the other low-ownership picks the model rates highly for this round.

Does the captain score double in Premier Manager Runde 4?

Yes — your kaptajn scores double points in Premier Manager, which is why the armband is worth as much as a transfer. For Runde 4 that puts Joao Pedro at roughly 421k on the model’s numbers, against 366k for Cole Palmer.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.