Premier Manager Runde 4: best buys and differentials
Premier Manager Runde 4 preview: best buys, hidden gems and who to sell
Premier Manager Runde 4 is the most lopsided round of the season so far. One fixture towers over the other nine, three clubs have a genuinely strong slate, and the bottom half of the fixture list is close to unplayable. The deadline is Saturday 12 September at 16:00, and the round runs all the way to Monday night, so there is a full three-day window of matches to cover.
The obvious names are covered below, but they are not where this round is won. Everyone can see the fixture. What separates a good Runde 4 from a great one is the six or seven squad spots after the headline picks - the cheap defenders in the same fixture, the 3m midfielders with a real goal projection, and the high-priced players you should be moving off before their programme collapses.
The fixtures that matter in Runde 4
Chelsea host Hull City and the model has this as the standout mismatch of the round: a 78% win probability, 2.67 expected goals for Chelsea and a 48% clean sheet chance. Hull are given a 7% win probability and 0.74 expected goals - the weakest projection of any team in Runde 4. Every Chelsea asset in this article traces back to that single line.
Liverpool - Fulham is the second-best attacking spot: Liverpool at 66% with 2.38 expected goals at home, Fulham down at 1.06 and a 9% clean sheet chance. Arsenal travel to Sunderland with a 64% win probability and the highest clean sheet projection in the entire round at 48% - even ahead of Chelsea's.
| Team | Fixture | Win% | Expected goals | Clean sheet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | [H]HUL | 78% | 2.67 | 48% |
| Hull City | [A]CHE | 7% | 0.74 | 7% |
| Liverpool | [H]FUL | 66% | 2.38 | 35% |
| Fulham | [A]LIV | 15% | 1.06 | 9% |
| Arsenal | [A]SUN | 64% | 1.86 | 48% |
| Sunderland | [H]ARS | 13% | 0.73 | 16% |
| Brighton | [A]COV | 54% | 1.78 | 35% |
| Crystal Palace | [H]IPS | 50% | 1.64 | 35% |
The Manchester derby is the round's biggest name and its worst value. Manchester City away at Manchester United comes out at only 45% with a 23% clean sheet chance, and United at 31% with 17%. It is a coin-flip priced like a banker. You can check every line for yourself on the Premier Manager market probabilities page, and the full three-day schedule on the Premier Manager schedule.
Goalkeepers for Runde 4
Emiliano Martinez (4.56m, CHE) is the round's outright best goalkeeper buy at 92k projected points, which is 20,202 points per million - the best rate of any keeper in the game this round. He is behind the defence with the highest clean sheet projection of any home side, and at 4.56m the 46k transfer fee is trivial against that.
David Raya (5.77m, ARS) is the pick if you want to buy once and stop thinking about it. 88k this round on the back of Arsenal's 48% clean sheet at Sunderland, and a 6-round weighted score of 298k - the highest of any keeper - because Arsenal's programme continues [A]Brighton then [H]Leeds, where the model gives them a 53% clean sheet chance.
The budget option is Dean Henderson (3.57m, CRY): 65k at 18,249 points per million with Crystal Palace at home to Ipswich, a 35% clean sheet spot. He frees up more than a million against Raya and costs 36k to bring in.
Defenders: the Chelsea block is the whole story
Premier Manager allows four players from one club, and Runde 4 is a round where using all four on Chelsea is defensible. Their defenders occupy the top of the points-per-million table in the entire game:
| Player | Price | Runde 4 xP | Points per million | Projected minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxence Lacroix (CHE) | 3.16m | 92k | 29,220 | 79 |
| Levi Colwill (CHE) | 3.08m | 85k | 27,545 | 89 |
| Jorrel Hato (CHE) | 3.16m | 87k | 27,379 | 74 |
| Malo Gusto (CHE) | 3.60m | 89k | 24,599 | 78 |
| Maxim De Cuyper (BHA) | 2.85m | 67k | 23,617 | 78 |
Maxence Lacroix (3.16m, CHE) is the single best value pick in Runde 4 at any position. 92k from a 3.16m defender is a rate no premium can match, and the model has him at 8.3 projected clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles on top of the 38% clean sheet share. Levi Colwill (3.08m, CHE) is the safest of the four on minutes - 89 projected, effectively a full game - where Lacroix, Hato and Gusto all carry some rotation risk in a fixture Chelsea are expected to control comfortably.
Virgil van Dijk (5.14m, LIV) is the premium alternative at 90k, and the only defender outside Chelsea projected above 90k this round. Be clear about what you are buying: Liverpool's programme turns quickly after this. He is projected 90k in Runde 4, 56k in Runde 5 away at Bournemouth and just 38k in Runde 6 at home to Manchester City. That is a two-round buy, not a season-long hold.
Gabriel (5.19m, ARS) is the opposite trade. Only 70k this round, but a 6-round weighted score of 239k because Arsenal's fixtures improve rather than decay - 56k in Runde 5, 83k in Runde 6 at home to Leeds. If you are buying one expensive defender to keep, it is him, not van Dijk.
Two genuine budget gems: Maxim De Cuyper (2.85m, BHA) at 67k and 23,617 points per million with Brighton away at Coventry, and Jaydee Canvot (2.51m, CRY) at 57k and 22,710 points per million - the cheapest defender in the game projected above 55k. Canvot's 25k fee is close to nothing, which makes him the classic one-round holdet buy: bring him in for Palace at home to Ipswich, sell him again when the fixture turns.
Midfielders: one premium, and a lot of cheap value
Cole Palmer (8.05m, CHE) is the round's best midfielder at 157k, and it is not close among the premiums. The model has him on 0.55 expected goals and 0.35 expected assists for the fixture, and - the number that decides it - an 86% penalty share. Chelsea at home against the weakest defensive projection in the round is where a penalty share is worth the most.
Morgan Rogers (5.81m, CHE) is the better buy if you cannot fit Palmer. 147k at 5.81m is 25,259 points per million, which for a player projected at that level is exceptional - you are paying 2.24m less than Palmer for 94% of the projection. He is also the more nailed of the two on minutes at 79 projected.
Cody Gakpo (6.91m, LIV) at 140k and Florian Wirtz (6.15m, LIV) at 118k are the Liverpool route into the Fulham fixture. Both carry the same warning as van Dijk: Gakpo drops to 78k in Runde 5 and 58k in Runde 6. Buy them for the fixture, not for the season.
Now the part that actually differentiates a squad. Three cheap midfielders with elite rates:
- Yeremi Pino (3.04m, CRY) - 84k, 27,605 points per million. The best rate of any midfielder in the game this round. The caveat is honest: 52 projected minutes, so he is not nailed. If he starts, nothing at this price comes close.
- Kevin Schade (3.26m, BRE) - 84k at 25,893 points per million, with 83 projected minutes, which makes him the safest of the three. He also has the best forward programme of the group with a 283k weighted score, so he is a keep rather than a one-round rental.
- Diego Gomez (3.18m, BHA) - 81k at 25,563 points per million with 81 projected minutes and 7.2 projected defensive actions on top of a 0.24 expected goals line. Brighton away at Coventry is a better fixture than the price suggests.
Two more differentials worth naming: Pedro Neto (4.25m, CHE) at 92k, the cheapest way into the Chelsea attack, and Emiliano Buendia (4.46m, AVL) at 87k with a 61% penalty share for Aston Villa at home to Nottingham Forest. Daichi Kamada (2.55m, CRY) at 55k and 21,539 points per million is the cheapest sensible filler in the round if you need to free up money elsewhere.
Forwards for Runde 4
Joao Pedro (7.93m, CHE) has the highest projection of any player in Runde 4 at 183k - ahead of Palmer, ahead of Haaland, ahead of everyone. 0.61 expected goals against the weakest defensive line in the round, and at 23,039 points per million he is not even expensive for what he delivers. If you make one aggressive buy this round, make it this one.
Erling Haaland (14.62m, MCI) is the exception to every fixture rule in this article. 161k in Runde 4 despite an awkward derby away at United, and a 6-round weighted score of 647k - 47% clear of the next-best player in the game. His Runde 5 is 201k at home to Sunderland and his Runde 7 is 244k. At 14.62m the 146k fee to sell him is punishing, which is precisely why you do not trade him in and out. Own him or plan around not owning him; do not buy him for one round.
Alexander Isak (7.53m, LIV) is at 152k for the Fulham game, but the model only projects 53 minutes, so you are paying premium money for a partial game. That is the risk to weigh - if he starts he is close to Joao Pedro, if he is rotated he is not.
The value forwards are unusually strong this round:
- Dominic Calvert-Lewin (4.71m, LEE) - 91k at 19,402 points per million, 81 projected minutes and a 91% penalty share for Leeds at home to Newcastle. The most nailed cheap striker in the round.
- Evanilson (4.65m, BOU) - 90k, 0.34 expected goals, 75 projected minutes at home to Brentford.
- Jorgen Strand Larsen (3.55m, CRY) - 81k with a 95% penalty share, the highest of any forward in Runde 4. Only 46 projected minutes, so treat him as a calculated risk rather than a certainty.
- Mathys Tel (3.48m, TOT) - 73k at 21,017 points per million with a 49% penalty share, Tottenham at home to Everton.
Who to sell before Runde 4
Anything from Hull, Sunderland or Fulham. Those three are projected at 0.74, 0.73 and 1.06 expected goals with clean sheet chances of 7%, 16% and 9%. Sunderland goalkeeper Robin Roefs is at 27k and is among the more widely held cheap keepers in the game - that is the clearest sell in the round.
Arsenal's rotating defenders. The clean sheet spot is the best in the round, but the model splits the returns across too many bodies: Riccardo Calafiori is at 46k, Cristhian Mosquera 41k, Myles Lewis-Skelly 40k and Ben White 38k. Gabriel at 70k and Jurrien Timber at 63k are the two projected to actually play the fixture. If you hold two or three Arsenal defenders, consolidate into one.
The Manchester City midfield, for this round only. Rayan Cherki is at 53k and Bryan Mbeumo at 65k, both hurt by the derby's coin-flip projection. Note the asymmetry: Mbeumo's weighted score is 301k because United's Runde 5 to Runde 8 run is strong, so this is a hold-through, not a sell. Cherki has no such rebound.
Liverpool assets, from Runde 5 onwards. Not this round - this round they are among the best buys in the game. But plan the exit now. Gakpo goes 140k, 78k, 58k across the next three rounds and Wirtz goes 118k, 70k, 51k. A 1% fee makes buying them for one big fixture and selling again entirely rational; forgetting to sell is what costs points.
Building the Runde 4 squad
The shape that the numbers point at: a Chelsea block of three or four (Joao Pedro plus Palmer or Rogers, plus one or two of Lacroix and Colwill at around 3.1m each), one Liverpool attacker for the Fulham game, Raya or Martinez in goal, and the remaining spots filled with the 2.5m to 3.3m value picks - Canvot, De Cuyper, Pino, Schade, Gomez, Kamada. Four players from one club is the cap, so a Chelsea block cannot go beyond that.
Cheap players are cheap to move. A 3m player costs 30k to transfer in and Runde 4 has several one-round fixtures worth exactly that trade. A 14m striker costs 146k, which is why the premium decisions should be made on the 6-round weighted view rather than on a single fixture.
Run your own numbers against the model's before the deadline: the Premier Manager player picks page has every projection in this article plus the ones that did not make it, optimal teams solves the best legal squad for Runde 4 live against the current prices, and predicted lineups is where to check the minutes risk on Pino, Strand Larsen and Isak before you commit. More rounds in the Premier Manager preview hub, and last week's edition is here: Premier Manager Runde 3 preview. New to the format? Start with our fantasy football guides.
One note on the data: the projections above come from the model's own components for this round - expected goals, expected assists, clean sheet probability, projected minutes and penalty share - rather than from a separate historical database, so every number quoted is the live Runde 4 projection.
FAQ
Who are the best buys in Premier Manager Runde 4?
Joao Pedro (7.93m, CHE) at 183k is the highest projection of any player in Runde 4, followed by Erling Haaland at 161k and Cole Palmer at 157k. Chelsea at home to Hull City is the round's standout fixture at a 78% win probability, so Chelsea assets dominate the buy list at every price point, with Maxence Lacroix at 3.16m the best value pick in the game at 29,220 points per million.
Is there a captain in Premier Manager Runde 4?
No - Premier Manager has no captaincy multiplier, so every player in your eleven scores at face value. That is why the round is decided by the total projection of all eleven picks rather than by doubling one name, and why the cheap high-rate players in this article matter as much as the premiums do.
Which budget defenders are best for Runde 4?
Maxence Lacroix (3.16m, CHE) at 92k and Levi Colwill (3.08m, CHE) at 85k are the two best budget defenders in Runde 4, both at over 27,000 points per million. Below 3m, Maxim De Cuyper (2.85m, BHA) at 67k and Jaydee Canvot (2.51m, CRY) at 57k are the standouts, and Canvot's 25k transfer fee makes him a viable single-round buy.
Should I sell Liverpool players after Runde 4?
Yes, for most of them. Liverpool are excellent this round at home to Fulham - 66% win probability and 2.38 expected goals - but the projections fall sharply afterwards: Cody Gakpo goes 140k, 78k, 58k over the next three rounds and Florian Wirtz goes 118k, 70k, 51k as the fixtures turn to Bournemouth away and Manchester City at home. Buy them for Runde 4 and plan the exit.
What are the best differentials for Premier Manager Runde 4?
Yeremi Pino (3.04m, CRY) at 84k and 27,605 points per million is the best-rate midfielder in the game this round, with the honest caveat of 52 projected minutes. Kevin Schade (3.26m, BRE) at 84k is the safer version at 83 projected minutes, Diego Gomez (3.18m, BHA) at 81k adds 7.2 projected defensive actions, and Pedro Neto (4.25m, CHE) at 92k is the cheapest route into the round's best fixture.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool