Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 9 tips: captain picks
Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 9 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 9 comes out of the international break, with the first kickoff on 23 October, and it is a round where the transfer you make should be about the next three Gameweeks, not just this one. Sporting CP host Academico Viseu in the most one-sided fixture of the round, and their run behind it ([H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense) is the best three-Gameweek program in the league by a distance. Benfica and FC Porto follow. Below we rank the programs, pick the buys per position, name the captain and flag the popular picks worth selling now. The full projections live on our Fantasy Portugal player picks page, and last round's thinking is in the Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 8 preview.
The programs: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning
Sporting's run is worth 8.52 expected goals and 1.51 expected clean sheets over Gameweeks 9 to 11, more than two goals clear of anyone else. The Viseu home game is the peak (88% win probability, 3.35 expected goals, 56% clean sheet chance), but the Casa Pia trip and the Moreirense home game behind it are both good fixtures, so Sporting assets are holds rather than one-round rentals.
Benfica's [A]Santa Clara → [H]Alverca → [A]Estrela da Amadora is second at 6.22 expected goals and 1.37 expected clean sheets. The Santa Clara away trip is the weakest of the three, and Alverca at home is the week to plan around. FC Porto's [A]Gil Vicente → [H]Estoril → [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes is similar in shape: a decent away game now, the best week in Gameweek 10.
At the other end, Academico Viseu (2.59 expected goals over three) and Casa Pia AC (2.87) are the attacks to avoid, and Santa Clara (2.90) only start to look playable from Gameweek 10. Every team has three fixtures in the window, so the totals below compare like with like. Kickoff times are on the Fantasy Portugal schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind them on the market probabilities page.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | [H]Academico Viseu | 88% | 3.35 | 56% | [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense | 8.52 | 1.51 |
| Benfica | [A]Santa Clara | 58% | 1.68 | 46% | [A]Santa Clara → [H]Alverca → [A]Estrela da Amadora | 6.22 | 1.37 |
| FC Porto | [A]Gil Vicente | 52% | 1.55 | 41% | [A]Gil Vicente → [H]Estoril → [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes | 5.71 | 1.24 |
| Braga | [A]Nacional | 51% | 1.62 | 37% | [A]Nacional → [H]Famalicao → [A]Rio Ave | 4.61 | 1.02 |
| Estoril | [H]Moreirense | 44% | 1.63 | 27% | [H]Moreirense → [A]FC Porto → [H]Maritimo | 4.14 | 0.58 |
| Famalicao | [A]Rio Ave | 41% | 1.33 | 34% | [A]Rio Ave → [A]Braga → [H]Arouca | 3.87 | 0.94 |
| Arouca | [A]Alverca | 31% | 1.15 | 27% | [A]Alverca → [H]Nacional → [A]Famalicao | 3.83 | 0.87 |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | [H]Maritimo | 50% | 1.70 | 32% | [H]Maritimo → [A]Gil Vicente → [H]FC Porto | 3.82 | 0.78 |
| Maritimo | [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes | 24% | 1.14 | 18% | [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes → [H]Santa Clara → [A]Estoril | 3.76 | 0.70 |
| Rio Ave | [H]Famalicao | 30% | 1.09 | 26% | [H]Famalicao → [A]Academico Viseu → [H]Braga | 3.70 | 0.81 |
| Alverca | [H]Arouca | 40% | 1.33 | 32% | [H]Arouca → [A]Benfica → [H]Casa Pia AC | 3.44 | 0.81 |
| Nacional | [H]Braga | 22% | 0.99 | 20% | [H]Braga → [A]Arouca → [H]Academico Viseu | 3.43 | 0.78 |
| Moreirense | [A]Estoril | 30% | 1.30 | 20% | [A]Estoril → [H]Estrela da Amadora → [A]Sporting CP | 3.35 | 0.58 |
| Estrela da Amadora | [H]Casa Pia AC | 39% | 1.27 | 32% | [H]Casa Pia AC → [A]Moreirense → [H]Benfica | 3.20 | 0.69 |
| Gil Vicente | [H]FC Porto | 20% | 0.88 | 21% | [H]FC Porto → [H]Vitoria de Guimaraes → [A]Santa Clara | 3.16 | 0.88 |
| Santa Clara | [H]Benfica | 16% | 0.77 | 19% | [H]Benfica → [A]Maritimo → [H]Gil Vicente | 2.90 | 0.90 |
| Casa Pia AC | [A]Estrela da Amadora | 32% | 1.13 | 28% | [A]Estrela da Amadora → [H]Sporting CP → [A]Alverca | 2.87 | 0.64 |
| Academico Viseu | [A]Sporting CP | 3% | 0.57 | 4% | [A]Sporting CP → [H]Rio Ave → [A]Nacional | 2.59 | 0.51 |
Goalkeepers
Samuel Soares (5.5m, Benfica) has the best three-Gameweek total of any goalkeeper at 13.7 points, on [A]Santa Clara → [H]Alverca → [A]Estrela da Amadora. His trajectory is flat, 4.6 → 4.6 → 4.5, which is exactly what you want from a keeper you buy and forget. Only 6.0% of managers own him.
Rui Silva (5.9m, Sporting CP) matches him this round at 4.6 thanks to the 56% clean sheet chance against Viseu, and his program [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense adds up to 13.4. Diogo Costa (6.6m, FC Porto) is owned by 64.0% and projects 4.2 → 4.3 → 4.1; he is a fine hold, but not a player to buy into.
The value pick is Matheus Mendes (4.0m, Alverca) at 1.00 points per million this round on [H]Arouca → [A]Benfica → [H]Casa Pia AC. The Benfica trip drops him to 3.4, but 4.0 and 4.3 either side of it make him the cheapest keeper worth starting. Bernardo Fontes (5.0m, Braga, 12.3 over three) is the middle option.
Defenders
Goncalo Inacio (6.4m, Sporting CP) is the top defender this round at 5.3 and over three Gameweeks at 14.7: 5.3 → 4.9 → 4.5 on [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense. He adds 0.12 expected goals to the clean sheet chance this round, which is why he edges his team-mates.
The Sporting differential is Iván Fresneda (6.0m, Sporting CP) on the same program, 4.9 → 4.6 → 4.0 and 13.5 in total, owned by just 3.6%. Pairing either of them with Rui Silva doubles up on the same clean sheet, which is the correlated stack this fixture run supports.
Here the round and the horizon disagree. Maximiliano Araujo (7.4m, Sporting CP, 36.7% owned) projects only 4.0 this round because the model expects about 52 minutes, but he rises to 4.8 in Gameweek 10 and totals 12.8 over three. If you own him, hold. If you are buying a Sporting defender now, Inacio and Fresneda are the better buys.
Outside Sporting, Victor Gomez (6.0m, Braga) carries 4.4 → 4.0 → 3.8 on [A]Nacional → [H]Famalicao → [A]Rio Ave, with 0.13 expected assists this round on top of a 37% clean sheet chance. Rodrigo Pinheiro (5.4m, Famalicao) is the mid-price option at 4.2 → 3.4 → 4.5 on [A]Rio Ave → [A]Braga → [H]Arouca: the Braga trip is the weak week, the Arouca home game the strong one.
For the cheap end of the squad, Finn van Breemen (4.7m, Famalicao) shares that program at 4.0 → 3.3 → 4.3 and 11.6 over three, and Victor Rofino (4.0m, Famalicao) projects 3.8 → 3.0 → 4.1 at 0.95 points per million this round, owned by 0.4%. Both are bench-and-rotate defenders whose Gameweek 11 is better than their Gameweek 10.
Midfielders
Geny Catamo (8.8m, Sporting CP) is the standout player of the round. He projects 6.6 against Viseu, a full point clear of every other player in the game, with 0.47 expected goals and 0.27 expected assists. His program [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense holds up behind it, 6.6 → 4.9 → 5.4, for 16.9 over three: the best total in the game. At 20.2% ownership he is not yet template, so he is both the best buy and a rank-gaining one.
Rafa Silva (9.9m, Benfica) is the case where the horizon beats the round. He projects only 4.4 at Santa Clara, but 5.2 against Alverca and 5.1 at Estrela da Amadora take him to 14.7 over three, second among midfielders, on [A]Santa Clara → [H]Alverca → [A]Estrela da Amadora. He is owned by 6.4%. If your one transfer this week is a midfielder you plan to keep, Rafa Silva is the alternative to Catamo; if you want this round's points, it is Catamo.
Gabriel Veiga (8.5m, FC Porto, 30.8% owned) is a hold rather than a buy: 3.7 → 5.3 → 3.8, with the Estoril home game in Gameweek 10 the reason to keep him.
Further down the price list, Sergi Altimira (6.1m, Sporting CP) gives you Sporting's run at 4.5 → 4.1 → 3.8 on [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense, and Sorriso (6.9m, Famalicao) projects 4.5 → 3.8 → 4.6 on [A]Rio Ave → [A]Braga → [H]Arouca, 12.9 over three. The hidden gem is Silas Andersen (5.1m, Sporting CP): 4.0 → 4.0 → 3.1 on the same Sporting program at 0.78 points per million this round, owned by 0.3%. He is projected for about 68 minutes, so check the Fantasy Portugal predicted lineups before the deadline.
Forwards
Vangelis Pavlidis (12.1m, Benfica) is owned by 73.1% and is a clear hold: 3.9 → 4.9 → 4.8 on [A]Santa Clara → [H]Alverca → [A]Estrela da Amadora, the best three-Gameweek total of any forward at 13.6. The Santa Clara trip is his quietest week; the two after it are why you keep him.
The Sporting forward question is minutes. Luis Suárez (12.6m, 30.6% owned) is projected for about 46 minutes and 4.2 → 4.0 → 4.1. Fotis Ioannidis (9.3m, Sporting CP) is projected for about 60 minutes on the same [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense program and out-scores him this round, 4.3 to 4.2, for 3.3m less and at 4.8% ownership. Over three Gameweeks, Luis Suárez edges it, 12.3 to 11.8, so owners can hold; for a new buy, Ioannidis is the value.
Cheap forwards are thin this round. Arnel Jakupovic (6.5m, Vitoria de Guimaraes) projects 3.7 against Maritimo but drops to 2.4 and 2.0 after it, so he is a one-Gameweek play, not a transfer. Leandro Antonetti (4.7m, Estrela da Amadora) is a reasonable bench forward at 2.6 → 2.3 → 1.8, nothing more.
Captaincy: who to captain in Gameweek 9
Captain Geny Catamo (8.8m, Sporting CP), on [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Moreirense. His 6.6 against Viseu is the highest projection in the game by more than a point, and Sporting carry an 88% win probability and 3.35 expected goals. Goncalo Inacio (5.3) is the next highest, with Iván Fresneda (4.9) third; both are defensive captain picks that only make sense if you do not own Catamo.
Plan the next two rounds as well. In Gameweek 10 the top projections are Gabriel Veiga (5.3, [H]Estoril) and Rafa Silva (5.2, [H]Alverca); in Gameweek 11 Catamo is back on top at 5.4 against Moreirense. Owning Catamo plus one of Veiga or Rafa Silva gives you a strong captain in each of the next three Gameweeks.
Who to sell before Gameweek 9
Goncalo Paciencia (6.0m, Santa Clara) is owned by 41.7% and projects 1.9 → 2.3 → 2.1 on [H]Benfica → [A]Maritimo → [H]Gil Vicente. Why now: the Benfica game is his low point and the two fixtures behind it never lift him above 2.3, so there is no better week ahead to sell into.
Yanis Begraoui (7.4m, Estoril, 24.4% owned) and Flavio Goncalves (6.9m, Sporting CP, 26.1% owned) are both minutes sells. The model projects Begraoui for about 23 minutes and Goncalves for about 22, which gives 1.3 and 1.8 this round. Why now: the minutes problem is this round's, and owning a slice of Sporting's program does not help a player who is not on the pitch. Begraoui's [A]FC Porto trip in Gameweek 10 is no relief either.
Rodrigo Zalazar (10.4m, Sporting CP, 26.6% owned) projects 3.3 → 2.3 → 3.5 on about 39 minutes. Viseu at home is a perfectly decent week for him, but the 2.3 at Casa Pia follows, and the same money buys Catamo, who out-projects him in all three Gameweeks. Selling into the good fixture now beats selling out of the weak one in Gameweek 10.
For the solved squad that best fits these numbers, see the live optimal teams for Fantasy Portugal, and for every round's preview, the Fantasy Portugal preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 9?
Geny Catamo. He projects 6.6 points against Academico Viseu, more than a point clear of anyone else, with Sporting at an 88% win probability. Goncalo Inacio (5.3) and Iván Fresneda (4.9) are the alternatives.
Which defenders are best for Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 9?
Goncalo Inacio (6.4m) leads at 5.3 this round and 14.7 over the next three, with Iván Fresneda (6.0m, 3.6% owned) the Sporting differential. Victor Gomez (6.0m, Braga) and Finn van Breemen (4.7m, Famalicao) are the cheaper options.
Should I sell Goncalo Paciencia before Gameweek 9?
Yes. He projects 1.9 against Benfica and no more than 2.3 in the two Gameweeks after it, so there is no better week to sell. Fotis Ioannidis (9.3m) or a Sporting midfielder are better uses of the slot.
Best differentials for Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 9?
Iván Fresneda (3.6% owned), Rafa Silva (6.4% owned, 14.7 over three Gameweeks), Samuel Soares (6.0% owned, the best three-Gameweek keeper) and Silas Andersen (0.3% owned, 4.0 this round at 5.1m).
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.