Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 7: best buys and captains

Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 7 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 7 is a small round with a long shadow. The nine fixtures run across Saturday 19 and Sunday 20 September, and then the league stops: Gameweek 8 does not kick off until 9 October. Whatever you buy this week sits in your squad for three weeks before you get another deadline, so the transfer you make now is really a transfer for the next three rounds, not for one.

Two things define the round. Sporting CP host Arouca in the single best fixture in the game, and the Clássico between FC Porto and Benfica takes the two biggest squads in the league and projects them down to roughly a goal and a third each. The decision Gameweek 7 asks is therefore not which player scores most on Saturday, but which programme you want to own while the international break runs. Our full Fantasy Portugal player picks page has every projection behind the names below.

The programmes: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning

Sporting CP have the best three-round run in the game and it is not close: [H]ARO → [A]BRA → [H]VIS, worth 8.04 expected goals and 1.39 expected clean sheets across the three. That is the reason a Sporting block is the spine of most good squads right now, and the three-per-club cap means you have to choose which three.

Benfica are second on 5.47 expected goals despite opening away at FC Porto, because [A]POR → [H]VSC → [A]SC turns sharply after the Clássico. Famalicão are the value programme: only 4.12 expected goals, but 1.11 expected clean sheets over the three, the third-best defensive run in the league behind Sporting and Benfica, from a squad priced like a mid-table side. Santa Clara (2.67) and Marítimo (2.92) sit at the bottom of the same table, and that is where the sells come from.

All eighteen clubs play in Gameweek 7, there is no blank, and every club in the table below has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the cumulative columns compare like with like. Fixture times and the full calendar are on the Fantasy Portugal schedule, and the win probabilities come from the same model that drives the market probabilities page.

Codes: AMA = Estrela da Amadora, EST = Estoril, VIS = Académico de Viseu, VSC = Vitória de Guimarães, SC = Santa Clara, MOR = Moreirense, CAP = Casa Pia, ALV = Alverca, RA = Rio Ave, ARO = Arouca, MAR = Marítimo, NAC = Nacional, GV = Gil Vicente.

Goalkeepers for Gameweek 7

Rui Silva (6.0m, SCP) is the premium pick at 4.5 projected this week and 13.1 across the programme, the joint-best three-round total of any keeper in the game. He is a clean-sheet bet rather than a save bet: Sporting carry a 51% clean-sheet chance against Arouca, the highest number in the round, and [H]ARO → [A]BRA → [H]VIS keeps him in good defensive fixtures either side of the Braga trip. Only 6.1% of managers own him.

The alternative is the one the round ranking hides. Samuel Soares (5.5m, BEN) matches him on 13.1 over three but is behind him this week (4.0 against 4.5), purely because of the Clássico. His trajectory reads 4.0 → 4.5 → 4.6 as [A]POR → [H]VSC → [A]SC opens up, so if you are buying a keeper to hold through the break rather than for Saturday, he is the better of the two and he is cheaper. Matheus Mendes (4.0m, ALV) is the budget answer: 4.2 this week, 12.2 over three, and 1.05 points per million, the best rate of any goalkeeper in the pool, on the [H]RA → [A]FAM → [H]ARO programme.

If you want the Famalicão defence without paying for it twice, Lazar Carevic (5.0m, FAM) is on 12.9 over the programme at 17.5% ownership. Oliwier Zych (5.0m, VSC) at 1.2% is the genuine differential: 4.5 this week and 11.9 over three on the [H]MOR → [A]BEN → [H]MAR run.

Best defenders to buy in Gameweek 7

Maximiliano Araujo (7.3m, SCP) is the highest-projected player in the game this week at any position, on 6.7, and the best defender over the programme at 18.1. The case is the programme, not the round: [H]ARO → [A]BRA → [H]VIS gives him two home games against the bottom half either side of a Braga away trip, and the model has him at 6.8 in Gameweek 9, marginally higher than this week. He is an attacking wing-back on 0.19 expected goals and 0.21 expected assists this weekend, not a stay-at-home centre-back, which is why 35.0% of squads already carry him.

Goncalo Inacio (6.4m, SCP) is the cheaper route into the same clean sheets at 13.3 over three, and Iván Fresneda (6.0m, SCP) at 3.5% ownership is the differential version of the same trade: 4.7 this week, 12.1 over three, and a starting share the model puts at 95%. Two Sporting defenders plus one of the attackers is the standard shape while this programme runs.

Outside Sporting, the Famalicão pair are the value. Rodrigo Pinheiro (5.5m, FAM) is 12.3 over the programme, and Finn van Breemen (4.6m, FAM) is the budget defender to own: 4.5 this week, 12.1 over three and 0.98 points per million on [A]NAC → [H]ALV → [A]RA. Famalicão post 1.11 expected clean sheets across the window, third-best in the league, so this is a hold rather than a one-week punt.

Two defenders where the round and the programme disagree, and the disagreement decides the transfer. Ricardo Esgaio (5.0m, GV) is 4.9 this week on [H]MAR → [A]MOR → [H]POR, one of the best defensive scores in the round, but his run falls to 2.8 by Gameweek 9, at home to FC Porto. Samuel Dahl (6.0m, BEN) is the mirror image: only 3.3 this week in the Clássico, then 4.5 → 4.0 after it for 11.8 over three. If you are making one transfer and keeping it through the break, buy Dahl; if you genuinely intend to rotate again in October, Esgaio is the better one-round pick.

Midfielders: the best buys for Gameweek 7

Geny Catamo (8.7m, SCP) leads the position both ways, 5.5 this week and 15.9 over the programme, and the shape of his run is the argument. [H]ARO → [A]BRA → [H]VIS means his two biggest projections (5.5 and 6.0) are the home games, with the Braga away trip as the dip in between. He carries 0.31 expected goals this weekend from a starting share of 97%.

Sorriso (6.9m, FAM) is the best mid-priced midfielder in the game on this evidence: 14.5 over three, the highest total outside Sporting, and the flattest trajectory in the position at 5.0 → 4.8 → 4.7. A flat programme is exactly what you want from a squad filler, because [A]NAC → [H]ALV → [A]RA never gives him a fixture you have to plan around. He is only 10.7% owned.

The premium differential is Rafa Silva (10.0m, BEN) at 7.2% ownership. He is behind several cheaper names this week at 3.8 because of the Clássico, but 5.7 is the highest midfield projection of any player in Gameweek 8, and 13.9 over three puts him third in the position. That is the whole case for buying him now rather than in October: [A]POR → [H]VSC → [A]SC turns after this round, and the price of waiting is that you spend the transfer a week late and lose the Vitória game.

Two more worth the squad space. Joao Carvalho (6.9m, EST) is 13.2 over the programme on [H]CAP → [A]VIS → [H]MOR, and Abraham Marcus (6.1m, AMA) is 12.7 over three on [H]VIS → [A]ARO → [H]CAP at 11.4% ownership. Both are cheaper than the Sporting midfielders and neither has a fixture in the window you would want to bench them for.

Samu (6.5m, VSC) and Chiquinho (5.5m, ALV) are the two best single-round scores in the position outside Sporting at 5.2 and 5.1, and both are explicitly short-term: Samu drops to 3.0 in Gameweek 8 away at Benfica, Chiquinho to 3.0 at Famalicão. With one free transfer a week and three weeks between the two rounds, a player you have to sell again in October is an expensive way to win one round, so take them only if you were changing that squad slot anyway. Samu does take Vitória’s penalties, which lifts the ceiling on a 62% win probability at home to Moreirense.

Forwards for Gameweek 7

Luis Suárez (12.5m, SCP) is the position, and the programme is why. He is 6.4 this week and 17.8 over the three, top of the forward list on both, and [H]ARO → [A]BRA → [H]VIS hands him two home games against bottom-half defences. He takes Sporting’s penalties, carries 0.75 expected goals in that fixture alone, and at 29.5% ownership he is not yet a template pick.

Vangelis Pavlidis (12.1m, BEN) is the round’s most interesting hold. He is the most-owned player in the game at 72.8%, he is only 4.1 this week away at FC Porto, and he is still second among forwards over the programme at 14.5, because 5.9 in Gameweek 8 at home to Vitória is the best forward projection of that round. Selling a penalty-taking striker into one hard fixture and buying him back for the good one costs a transfer in each direction. Hold, and take the Clássico on the chin.

The value pick is Yanis Begraoui (7.5m, EST): 4.4 this week, 12.8 over three on [H]CAP → [A]VIS → [H]MOR, and Estoril’s 4.87 expected goals across the window is the third-highest in the league. Gustavo Silva (7.0m, VSC) at 4.6% ownership is the differential alternative, 10.7 over three on [H]MOR → [A]BEN → [H]MAR, with the Benfica away game as the one round you would consider benching him.

Captain picks for Gameweek 7

The captain scores double in Fantasy Portugal, so the ranking follows the projection.

1. Maximiliano Araujo – 6.7 projected, the highest number in the game this week. Sporting’s 80% win probability and 2.76 expected goals against Arouca are both round-highs, and he is the rare defender you can captain without losing ceiling, because his returns come from the attacking third.
2. Luis Suárez – 6.4 projected, and the higher-variance version of the same bet. He is on penalties and 0.75 expected goals in the fixture, so if you want the bigger tail rather than the bigger mean, captain him instead.
3. Geny Catamo – 5.5 projected, the third Sporting option and the cheapest way to hold the armband in this fixture.

Plan the next two while you are at it, because it changes which premium you buy. In Gameweek 8 the armband moves to Benfica at home to Vitória, where Vangelis Pavlidis is 5.9 and Rafa Silva 5.7, the two highest scores in that round. In Gameweek 9 it comes straight back to Sporting at home to Académico de Viseu, where Maximiliano Araujo is 6.8 and Luis Suárez 6.7. Own one premium from each of those two clubs and you have a captain every week of the programme without a further transfer. The predicted lineups page is the last check before the deadline.

Hidden gems and differentials for Gameweek 7

Iván Fresneda (6.0m, SCP) at 3.5% ownership is the pick of them: 4.7 this week, 12.1 over the programme, and he plays in the same defence as the most-owned defender in the game. Rafa Silva (10.0m, BEN) (7.2%) gives you the best premium midfield programme in the window for a fraction of the ownership, and Oliwier Zych (5.0m, VSC) (1.2%) is 11.9 over three from the Vitória goal at a price that funds a premium elsewhere.

Two cheaper names for the last squad slots: Murilo (6.3m, GV) is 11.6 over the programme on [H]MAR → [A]MOR → [H]POR at 4.8% ownership, and Gil Dias (6.4m, FAM) is 12.4 over three on the same Famalicão run that carries the third-best clean-sheet total in the league. Neither will win you the round on his own; both stop the bottom of your squad leaking points while the good fixtures at the top of it do the work. The live optimal teams for Fantasy Portugal solve the whole squad against these same numbers if you want to see how the pieces fit.

Who to sell before Gameweek 7

Goncalo Paciencia (5.9m, SC) is the clearest sale in the game. 40.1% of squads own him, he is 2.7 this week and 7.6 across the whole programme, one of the lowest three-round totals of any widely owned player. The why-now is unusually clean: [H]BRA → [A]CAP → [H]BEN is the best run he has in the window, so his best fixture is already in front of you and it still only projects 2.7. Waiting a week means spending the same free transfer in October on the same problem, three weeks later.

Rodrigo Zalazar (10.4m, SCP) is the expensive version of the same mistake. He is one of the most-owned midfielders in the game at 30.4% and he is on the best programme in the league, but the model gives him a 29% starting share, 2.8 this week and 8.8 over three. Sporting’s fixtures are worth owning; he is the wrong way to own them, and the why-now is the calendar: the two Sporting home games are Gameweeks 7 and 9, the rounds his own programme is built on, so holding him means paying premium money right through the best run in the league and collecting a rotation share of it. Put the money into Geny Catamo or Maximiliano Araujo instead.

Victor Froholdt (8.4m, POR) is flagged unavailable with a return date of 18 September, the eve of the deadline, and the model reflects it: 0.0 this week and 2.7 across the programme, on 25.5% ownership. Even a player back in training does not recover that gap inside three rounds, and the same shape appears a division down in price with Leonardo Santos (4.6m, NAC) (20.7% owned, a 31% starting share, 0.9 this week and 4.0 over three). Jose Fontán (5.3m, ARO) is the one to be patient with instead: he is only 1.9 this week, but 4.0 → 3.3 follows and 9.2 over three is a perfectly ownable total, so you can wait a round on that one.

One sale not to make: the FC Porto defence. Diogo Costa (6.6m, POR) and Jakub Kiwior (6.2m, POR) are both under 4.0 this week purely because Benfica are the opponent, and [H]BEN → [A]MAR → [A]GV recovers with two winnable away games straight after. That is a fixture to sit through, not a programme to sell.

For the round before this one, see our Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 6 preview, and every round we have covered is collected in the Fantasy Portugal preview hub. More background reading lives in our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 7?

Maximiliano Araujo (7.3m, Sporting CP) is the top captain pick at 6.7 projected, the highest number in the game this Gameweek. Sporting host Arouca with an 80% win probability and 2.76 expected goals, both round-highs. Luis Suárez is the higher-ceiling alternative at 6.4 projected because he takes the penalties, and Geny Catamo at 5.5 is the third option from the same fixture.

Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 7?

Finn van Breemen (4.6m, Famalicão) is the budget defender to own at 0.98 points per million: 4.5 this Gameweek and 12.1 across [A]NAC → [H]ALV → [A]RA, on the third-best three-round clean-sheet run in the league. Rodrigo Pinheiro (5.5m) is the next-cheapest route into the same defence at 12.3 over three, and Ricardo Esgaio (5.0m, Gil Vicente) is the best one-week score at 4.9 if you plan to rotate again in October.

Should I sell Vangelis Pavlidis before Gameweek 7?

No. He is only 4.1 away at FC Porto, but he is 5.9 in Gameweek 8 at home to Vitória de Guimarães, the highest forward projection of that round, and 14.5 across the three rounds, second among all forwards. Selling a penalty-taking striker for one hard fixture and buying him back costs two transfers. The forward genuinely worth selling this Gameweek is Goncalo Paciencia, who is 7.6 over the same three rounds.

Best differentials for Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 7?

Iván Fresneda (6.0m, Sporting CP) at 3.5% ownership is the standout: 4.7 this Gameweek and 12.1 over the best three-round programme in the league. Rafa Silva (10.0m, Benfica) at 7.2% owned is the premium differential, with 5.7 in Gameweek 8 and 13.9 over three, and Oliwier Zych (5.0m, Vitória de Guimarães) at 1.2% is the cheap goalkeeper nobody has.

Does every team play in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 7?

Yes. All eighteen clubs have exactly one fixture in Gameweek 7, played across Saturday 19 and Sunday 20 September, so there is no blank to plan around. The next deadline after this one is Gameweek 8 on 9 October, so any transfer you make now stays in the squad for three weeks.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.