Champions Manager Spillerunde 2: buys and captains

Champions Manager Spillerunde 2 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Champions Manager Spillerunde 2 is the cleanest round of the league phase so far: all 36 clubs play exactly once, on 13 and 14 October, and the deadline is 13 October at 18:45. There are no doubles and no blanks to work around, so this round is decided purely by fixture quality and by which mid-priced players you use to fund the top of your team.

Spillerunde 1 is still being played as this is written, so nothing below leans on those results. Every number here comes from the current model run: win probability, expected goals and clean-sheet probability per club, and projected points (pP) per player. You can follow the same numbers on the Champions Manager player picks page and watch them move as team news lands on predicted lineups. With five weeks until the deadline this is a planning piece, and it will be refreshed as lineups firm up.

Spillerunde 2 fixtures: where the points are

Four ties stand clear of the rest. Arsenal - Lille is the best fixture in the round on both measures the model tracks: Arsenal are 69.9% to win and 45.0% to keep a clean sheet, the highest figure of any club in Spillerunde 2. Bayern München travel to Viking with the round's biggest attacking projection at 2.48 expected goals, and Liverpool go to LASK as 63.1% favourites with a 43.9% clean-sheet chance.

Behind them, Inter host Club Brugge (59.9% win, 33.8% clean sheet, 2.10 expected goals) and Aston Villa host Fenerbahçe (57.3%, 37.3%). Both are cheaper routes into the same kind of fixture. The marquee tie, Manchester City - Paris Saint-Germain, is the one to be careful with: the model splits it 40.1% to 32.8% and gives neither side more than a 26.8% clean-sheet chance, so it is a game to attack selectively rather than stack.

The other end of the table matters just as much for who you sell. Lille are the round's clear outsiders away at Arsenal (11.0% win, 10.4% clean sheet), Viking host Bayern München with an 8.4% clean-sheet chance - the lowest of any club in the round - and LASK (14.3%) and Club Brugge (18.1%) complete the group you want no defensive exposure to. The full grid is on the Champions Manager schedule page, with the underlying prices on market probabilities.

Plan past Spillerunde 2: the doubles and blanks are already visible

Champions Manager rounds are date-based windows rather than single matchdays, so from Spillerunde 3 onwards the schedule stops being symmetrical. That is where this round's transfers should be pointed, because the 1% fee is cheap on a mid-priced player and expensive on a premium.

• Spillerunde 3 - all 36 clubs play, and four play twice: Galatasaray, Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP and VfB Stuttgart.
• Spillerunde 4 - Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP and VfB Stuttgart have no fixture in Spillerunde 4.
• Spillerunde 5 - Aston Villa, Bodø/Glimt, Galatasaray and LASK have no fixture in Spillerunde 5.
• Spillerunde 6 - Sabah FK, Viking and Villarreal have no fixture in Spillerunde 6.
• Spillerunde 7 - every club plays, and 32 of the 36 play twice. That is the round to bank value for.

The immediate consequence: three of the four clubs that double in Spillerunde 3 are also the three that blank in Spillerunde 4. Owning them for one round and moving on is a legitimate plan - but it has to be a plan, not something you notice a round late.

Goalkeepers for Spillerunde 2

David Raya tops the position, and it is the fixture doing the work: a 45.0% clean-sheet chance is the best in the round.

• David Raya (5.5m, Arsenal) - 85k pP, the highest of any keeper in the round, on Arsenal's 45.0% clean-sheet projection.
• Alisson Becker (4.5m, Liverpool) - 80k pP for a full million less, and a 43.9% clean-sheet chance at LASK. The best blend of ceiling and price in the position.
• Manuel Neuer (5.0m, Bayern München) - 76k pP with Bayern favoured at 65.2%, though their 30.7% clean-sheet number trails the two above.
• Josep Martinez (4.5m, Inter) - 74k pP at 0.7% ownership. Inter's 33.8% clean-sheet chance is the fourth best in the round and almost nobody is there.
• Zion Suzuki (3.6m, Aston Villa) - 70k pP and 19.68 points per million, the best of any keeper. Aston Villa's 37.3% clean-sheet projection is third best in Spillerunde 2.

Cheaper still, Álvaro Vallés (3.5m, Real Betis) and Luiz Junior (3.5m, Villarreal) are both projected in the low 60ks on home fixtures with clean-sheet chances around 30%, which is unusual value at that price. Pairing a keeper with a defender from the same club is the one stack the model actively rewards, because a single clean sheet pays both.

Defenders for Spillerunde 2

The position splits into two attacking full-backs at the top and a deep band of 3.5m options that out-earn them per million.

• Federico Dimarco (5.5m, Inter) - 79k pP, the top defender in the round, at 0.3% ownership. Inter's home tie carries a 33.8% clean-sheet chance and the model adds 0.16 assists on top. He carried an availability flag with a 10 September return date, comfortably clear of this deadline.
• Virgil van Dijk (4.5m, Liverpool) - 76k pP on Liverpool's 43.9% clean-sheet projection, at 16.84 points per million. The safest premium defender in the round.
• Maximilian Mittelstaedt (4.0m, VfB Stuttgart) - 72k pP, and he holds a 0.73 penalty share, which is rare for a defender and lifts his ceiling well above a clean-sheet-only pick.
• Gabriel (5.0m, Arsenal) - 70k pP on the round's best clean-sheet fixture.
• Matty Cash (3.5m, Aston Villa) - 69k pP and 19.70 points per million, the best of any defender in Spillerunde 2. At 3.5m the 1% fee is 35k of squad value, so he is cheap to hold and cheap to move on.
• Matthieu Udol (3.5m, Lens) - 68k pP at 0.0% ownership, with 84 projected minutes - the most of any defender in this group - and 0.17 assists.

At the cheapest end, RB Leipzig's home tie against PSV Eindhoven supports a whole back line: Ridle Baku and Willi Orban are both projected around 59-60k at 3.5m on a 33.2% clean-sheet chance. Ezri Konsa (3.5m, Arsenal) is the same idea one place further back, on 56k pP at 5.6% ownership.

Midfielders for Spillerunde 2

This is the richest position in the round, and the one where ownership sits furthest from the projections.

• Lamine Yamal (7.5m, Barcelona) - 115k pP, the top midfielder in the round, with 0.36 goals and 0.17 assists projected at Galatasaray.
• Luis Diaz (6.5m, Bayern München) - 112k pP for a million less than the other Bayern premiums, on the round's highest team expected-goals figure.
• Christos Tzolis (4.0m, Arsenal) - 104k pP. That is 25.96 points per million, the best of any player projected above 100k, and he is only 10.3% owned. The most efficient way to get elite midfield output into a team this round.
• Bukayo Saka (7.0m, Arsenal) - 103k pP on the same Arsenal fixture, at 0.6% ownership, with a 0.35 penalty share.
• Dominik Szoboszlai (5.0m, Liverpool) - 102k pP with a 0.90 penalty share and 81 projected minutes, the most secure start of any midfielder at this level. He also inherits Liverpool's 43.9% clean-sheet exposure.
• Ademola Lookman (5.5m, Atletico Madrid) - 93k pP at 0.3% ownership, and the strongest six-round outlook of any midfielder outside the very top: 93k, 91k, 88k, 146k, 185k, 121k, for a decay-weighted 402.

Two more worth naming: Ismael Saibari (5.5m, Bayern München) at 97k pP, and Cody Gakpo (5.5m, Liverpool) at 95k with Liverpool's clean-sheet exposure attached. Both sit under 2% ownership.

Forwards for Spillerunde 2

• Harry Kane (9.5m, Bayern München) - 132k pP, the highest projection of any player in Spillerunde 2, with 0.51 goals and a 0.60 penalty share against the club given the round's lowest clean-sheet chance. His 54 projected minutes reflect real rotation risk, and the projection already accounts for it.
• Raphinha (7.0m, Barcelona) - 115k pP and a 0.75 penalty share. He is also the most-owned player in the game at 54.2%, so he protects your position rather than improving it.
• Kylian Mbappé (10.2m, Real Madrid) - 114k pP at Roma, and the best six-round total in the game at a decay-weighted 542. If you make one premium commitment for the rest of the league phase, the model prefers this one.
• Lautaro Martinez (6.5m, Inter) - 112k pP at 1.6% ownership. Within 20k of the top pick, cheaper than all three premiums above, and a genuine differential. The stand-out forward buy of the round.
• Serhou Guirassy (6.5m, Borussia Dortmund) - 103k pP at Bodø/Glimt, and 144k projected in Spillerunde 3.
• Erling Haaland (9.5m, Manchester City) - 101k pP. The Paris Saint-Germain tie is his weakest fixture of the next six, but a 182k Spillerunde 3 projection and a 508 weighted total keep him a hold rather than a sell.

Cheaper routes in: Alexander Isak (6.0m, Liverpool) at 96k, and at the value end Juan Hernández (4.0m, Real Betis) on 80k pP with a 0.55 penalty share at 0.2% ownership, and Troy Parrott (3.0m, Real Betis) at 73k pP for 24.20 points per million on the same fixture.

Best captain picks for Spillerunde 2

The captain scores double in Champions Manager, so this is the biggest single decision in the round.

Harry Kane is the number one captain pick. He has the highest projection in the game this round, he takes Bayern's penalties on a 0.60 share, and Viking carry the lowest clean-sheet probability of any club in Spillerunde 2 at 8.4%. The caveat is those 54 projected minutes - if Bayern rotate as a 65.2% favourite, the armband is exposed.

Raphinha and Lamine Yamal are the two safest alternatives, both on the Galatasaray fixture. The interesting third option is Lautaro Martinez: he is within 20k of the top of the board on a home tie Inter are 59.9% to win, and at 1.6% ownership captaining him is the highest-leverage call available. The live optimal-teams solver re-ranks all of this against current prices.

Hidden gems and differentials

Ownership in this game is concentrated in a handful of cheap round-one enablers, which leaves a lot of strong mid-priced output almost untouched.

Joy-Lance Mickels has the best points-per-million figure of any player in the game this round at 32.13, and he holds a full 1.00 penalty share for Sabah FK at home. Abdallah Sima is the same shape of pick at Lens, with 75 projected minutes on a 31.7% clean-sheet fixture. Neither is a season-long hold - both are one- or two-round buys where the fee is 30k of squad value and the upside is a nailed starter in a live game.

The differential with the longest legs is Ademola Lookman (5.5m, Atletico Madrid). At 5.5m and 0.3% ownership his projections run 93k, 91k, 88k, 146k, 185k and 121k over the next six rounds - a weighted 402 that beats every midfielder in the game except Lamine Yamal. Ownership and price history sit on the player data page, and penalty takers shows who else carries a share.

Who to sell before Spillerunde 2

Three of the five most-owned players in the game are cheap VfB Stuttgart defenders, and that block is the clearest sell in the round. VfB Stuttgart are away to Slovan Bratislava on a 30.1% clean-sheet chance, which is mid-table for this round - and they have no fixture at all in Spillerunde 4.

Alberto Brignoli is the most urgent name on that list. He is owned by 21.6% of teams and the model projects him at minus 5k for Spillerunde 2 - and negative in every one of the next six rounds. A player expected to cost you points is worse than the fee to replace him, and at 2.6m that fee is trivial.

Fabián Ruiz at 33.8% ownership is projected 33k, and Ousmane Dembélé (8.0m, Paris Saint-Germain) is the worst value in the game at the top end: 8.0m for 36k pP is 4.51 points per million, against 17.13 for Lautaro Martinez at 6.5m. Both Paris Saint-Germain players sit in a tie the model rates a coin-flip.

Two downgrades rather than sells. Michael Olise (7.5m, Bayern München) is 86k pP on 58 projected minutes, while Luis Diaz is 112k for a million less on the same fixture - the model prefers the cheaper Bayern winger clearly, both this round and across the weighted six-round view, 362 to 282. And Gregor Kobel (4.0m, Borussia Dortmund) at 7.7% ownership faces the round's second-lowest clean-sheet projection at Bodø/Glimt (19.7%), which makes any of the five keepers above him an upgrade.

One name to buy next round rather than now: Victor Osimhen (5.5m, Galatasaray) is 82k pP this round on a home tie Galatasaray are only 22.5% to win, but he is projected 228k in Spillerunde 3 on their double. Luis Suárez (5.0m, Sporting CP) is the same case - 73k now, 230k in Spillerunde 3. Galatasaray then have no fixture in Spillerunde 5, and Sporting CP none in Spillerunde 4, so time the entry and the exit together.

Spillerunde 2 in one paragraph

Take the Arsenal and Liverpool defensive fixtures, fund them with Christos Tzolis or Ademola Lookman in midfield rather than a fourth premium, captain Harry Kane unless you want the Lautaro Martinez differential, and use the round to clear the cheap VfB Stuttgart block before their Spillerunde 4 blank. You may hold up to four players from any one club, so an Arsenal or Liverpool core of a keeper plus two defenders and an attacker is legal and well supported by the projections. Compare it against your own squad on the Champions Manager team planner, and see the rest of the series in the Champions Manager preview hub - including the Spillerunde 1 preview.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Champions Manager Spillerunde 2?

Harry Kane. He is projected at 132k pP, the highest of any player in the round, he takes Bayern's penalties on a 0.60 share, and Viking have the lowest clean-sheet probability of any club in Spillerunde 2 at 8.4%. Raphinha and Lamine Yamal are the safer alternatives, and Lautaro Martinez at 1.6% ownership is the highest-upside differential armband.

Which cheap players are best in Champions Manager Spillerunde 2?

Joy-Lance Mickels at 3.0m is the best points-per-million pick in the game this round at 32.13, with a full penalty share for Sabah FK. Abdallah Sima (3.0m) follows at 28.59, Christos Tzolis (4.0m) is the best value at the top of the board at 25.96, and Matty Cash (3.5m) leads all defenders at 19.70.

Should I sell Josha Vagnoman before Spillerunde 2?

Yes, and the same applies to the rest of the cheap VfB Stuttgart block. Josha Vagnoman is owned by 39.2% of teams, is projected at only 42k for Spillerunde 2, and VfB Stuttgart have no fixture in Spillerunde 4. The more urgent sale is Alberto Brignoli, owned by 21.6% and projected negative in every one of the next six rounds.

Which teams have no fixture in Champions Manager Spillerunde 4?

Shakhtar Donetsk, Sporting CP and VfB Stuttgart all have no fixture in Spillerunde 4. All three play twice in Spillerunde 3 first, so they are a one-round window rather than a hold. Separately, Aston Villa, Bodø/Glimt, Galatasaray and LASK have no fixture in Spillerunde 5.

How many players can I have from one club in Champions Manager?

Four. That makes an Arsenal or Liverpool core genuinely viable in Spillerunde 2, since both clubs carry the round's two best clean-sheet projections at 45.0% and 43.9% - a keeper, two defenders and an attacker from the same side all double up on the same clean sheet.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.