Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 25: best buys and captains

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 25 preview: captain, best buys and differentials

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 25 opens a six-round run-in, and one fixture decides the shape of it: Djurgården host Örgryte with a 78% win probability, 2.90 expected goals and a 40% clean sheet chance. That is the round's headline, but it is not the reason to act. Djurgården's program of [H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG is the best three-round run in the game at 7.06 expected goals, so this is the round to get Djurgården assets in before the good run starts rather than chase them halfway through it. The rest of this preview covers who else owns a program worth buying, the captaincy plan for the next three Gameweeks, the hidden gems, and who to sell.

Numbers below are the model's projected points from our Allsvenskan Fantasy player picks, with three-round totals for Gameweeks 25-27. The first deadline is Friday 23 October, when Elfsborg host Malmö FF and Västerås SK host Halmstads BK. Last round's picks are in the Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 24 preview.

Gameweek 25 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

The table ranks every club on its next three fixtures. The first five columns are Gameweek 25 alone; the last three are cumulative over Gameweeks 25-27, and 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets from three games, not a percentage.

Team	Gameweek 25	Win probability	Expected goals	Clean sheet	Program (GW25-27)	3-round xG	3-round CS
DIF	[H]ÖIS	78%	2.90	40%	[H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG	7.06	1.02
BKH	[H]DEG	59%	2.12	32%	[H]DEG → [A]BRO → [H]IFK	5.87	0.80
SIR	[H]AIK	58%	1.90	38%	[H]AIK → [A]HIF → [H]HBK	5.80	0.95
HIF	[A]MJA	43%	1.50	30%	[A]MJA → [H]SIR → [A]MFF	5.20	0.79
MJA	[H]HIF	30%	1.22	22%	[H]HIF → [A]ÖIS → [H]KFF	4.89	0.89
ELF	[H]MFF	41%	1.45	29%	[H]MFF → [A]AIK → [H]ÖIS	4.73	0.92
MFF	[A]ELF	32%	1.25	24%	[A]ELF → [A]HBK → [H]HIF	4.39	0.74
BRO	[A]KFF	35%	1.33	25%	[A]KFF → [H]BKH → [A]VÄS	4.30	0.77
VÄS	[H]HBK	56%	2.01	31%	[H]HBK → [A]DEG → [H]BRO	3.99	0.76
GAI	[H]IFK	46%	1.46	36%	[H]IFK → [A]KFF → [H]AIK	3.92	1.06
DEG	[A]BKH	19%	1.15	12%	[A]BKH → [H]VÄS → [A]DIF	3.75	0.64
IFK	[A]GAI	25%	1.02	23%	[A]GAI → [H]DIF → [A]BKH	3.67	0.51
KFF	[H]BRO	38%	1.40	26%	[H]BRO → [H]GAI → [A]MJA	3.59	0.71
AIK	[A]SIR	18%	0.98	15%	[A]SIR → [H]ELF → [A]GAI	3.28	0.77
HBK	[A]VÄS	21%	1.18	13%	[A]VÄS → [H]MFF → [A]SIR	3.14	0.40
ÖIS	[A]DIF	8%	0.91	6%	[A]DIF → [H]MJA → [A]ELF	3.07	0.34

Djurgården are the clear target: the Örgryte game is the best fixture of the round and the next two keep them above two expected goals per match on average. Häcken ([H]DEG → [A]BRO → [H]IFK, 5.87 xG) and Sirius ([H]AIK → [A]HIF → [H]HBK, 5.80 xG and 0.95 expected clean sheets) are the next two attacks to own. For defence alone, GAIS have the best three-round clean sheet total in the game at 1.06, and over six rounds they reach 2.11, also the best, which makes them the defensive hold of the run-in.

Västerås SK are the trap. [H]HBK is a good fixture with a 56% win probability and 2.01 expected goals, but the program behind it adds only 1.98 more expected goals over two games. They are a one-round team, not a three-round one. Örgryte ([A]DIF → [H]MJA → [A]ELF, 0.34 expected clean sheets) and Halmstads BK (0.40) have the weakest defensive programs. Check the full Allsvenskan Fantasy schedule for the fixtures beyond Gameweek 27.

Best Gameweek 25 goalkeepers

Jacob Rinne (5.9m, DIF) projects the most of any goalkeeper this round at 4.8 points, behind Djurgården's 40% clean sheet chance against Örgryte. His program, [H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG, gives 4.8 → 4.2 → 4.7, or 13.7 over three. He is owned by 11.0% of managers.

Mergim Krasniqi (5.4m, GAI) matches Rinne's 13.7 over three for 0.5m less, and he is the better hold. GAIS go [H]IFK → [A]KFF → [H]AIK and then [A]DEG → [H]VÄS → [A]ELF, the best six-round clean sheet run in the game. His decay-weighted six-round score is 16.45, the highest of any goalkeeper. This is where the round and the horizon disagree: Rinne wins Gameweek 25, but if you are buying one goalkeeper and keeping him, buy Krasniqi. Only 7.1% own him.

For a cheaper option, Leo Cavallius (4.6m, BRO) gives 4.3 → 4.0 → 4.6 from [A]KFF → [H]BKH → [A]VÄS, 12.9 over three, and a flat run after that. Samuel Brolin (4.4m, KFF) has the best points per million of any goalkeeper at 0.95, with [H]BRO → [H]GAI → [A]MJA projecting 4.2 → 4.4 → 3.8.

Best Gameweek 25 defenders

Adam Ståhl (6.3m, DIF) is the top-scoring defender of the round at 5.5 points and has the highest three-round total of any defender at 14.1 (5.5 → 3.7 → 4.9 over [H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG). He adds 0.19 expected assists this round on top of the clean sheet. Only 2.8% own him, which makes him the defensive differential of the round. His projected 75 minutes is the one risk, so check the Allsvenskan predicted lineups before the deadline.

If you want the same Djurgården clean sheet with safer minutes, Jacob Une Larsson (5.4m, DIF) projects 4.9 → 3.6 → 4.5 (13.0 over three) at 3.6% ownership, and Piotr Johansson (5.7m, DIF) projects 5.1 → 3.6 → 4.6 (13.3). Pairing either with Rinne is the correlated stack of the round. One clean sheet against Örgryte pays both. Note that Djurgården's defence drops off after Gameweek 28 ([A]SIR in Gameweek 29 projects Ståhl at 2.6), so these are three- or four-round holds, not season keepers.

Oliver Zandén (5.0m, BRO) is the hidden gem for managers who want to stop thinking about a slot. His trajectory is flat: 4.1 → 4.0 → 4.5 → 4.1 → 5.3 over [A]KFF → [H]BKH → [A]VÄS → [H]MJA → [H]HBK. His weighted six-round score of 15.19 is third among all defenders, ahead of every Sirius and Hammarby option, and only 4.4% own him.

Tobias Anker (5.2m, SIR) gives 4.6 → 3.0 → 5.0 over [H]AIK → [A]HIF → [H]HBK. The Hammarby away game is the dip to plan around, not a reason to avoid him: Sirius carry 0.95 expected clean sheets across the three. Niklas Hult (6.2m, ELF), already owned by 34%, is worth keeping: 4.3 → 3.8 → 5.1 from [H]MFF → [A]AIK → [H]ÖIS, and his weighted score of 15.44 is second among defenders.

The budget one-rounder is Simon Gefvert (5.1m, VÄS). He has the best points per million of any regular starting defender at 1.06 and projects 5.4 at home to Halmstads BK, second among all defenders. After that he drops to 3.4 → 3.9 over [A]DEG → [H]BRO, so buy him for this round only if you have a spare transfer, and plan to move him on again.

Best Gameweek 25 midfielders

Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) is the best player in the game over any horizon you choose. He projects 8.3 points against Örgryte, the highest in the pool by 1.8, and his program of [H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG gives 8.3 → 5.8 → 7.3, or 21.4 over three. He carries 0.53 expected goals and 0.53 expected assists this round. At 1.00 points per million he is also the best value midfielder. He is 54% owned, so owning him protects rank rather than winning it. The rest of this section is about the spots around him.

Isak Bjerkebo (9.3m, SIR) is the most-owned player in the game at 62%, and the program says keep him: 6.0 → 4.4 → 7.3 over [H]AIK → [A]HIF → [H]HBK, 17.7 over three, second only to Hegland. Victor Lind (11.0m, HIF) is a hold whose case lives further out. His 4.6 at [A]MJA is modest, but the trajectory rises to 5.4 → 5.1 and then 6.0 → 5.9 → 5.5 over [H]ELF → [H]IFK → [A]VÄS. Hammarby have 1.97 expected clean sheets over six rounds, the second-best run in the game.

The differential is Mikkel Rygaard (8.4m, BKH), owned by just 1.9%. Häcken's [H]DEG → [A]BRO → [H]IFK gives him 5.0 → 4.1 → 4.8, then 5.2 at [A]AIK in Gameweek 28. That is four good rounds. [H]ELF in Gameweek 29 drops him to 2.7, so treat him as a four-round buy and plan the sale for that week. For a flatter option, Mads Kristian Hansen (7.2m, BRO) projects 4.2 → 4.6 → 4.5 → 4.3 → 4.6 from [A]KFF → [H]BKH → [A]VÄS → [H]MJA → [H]HBK. At 6.1% ownership, that is five decent fixtures. Momoh Kamara (6.8m, ELF) gives 4.4 → 3.7 → 5.2 over [H]MFF → [A]AIK → [H]ÖIS, with the Örgryte game in Gameweek 27 the reason to own him.

The budget pick is Daniel Stensson (4.3m, DIF), owned by 0.3%. He projects 4.1 → 3.1 → 3.6 over the Djurgården program, which is 0.95 points per million this round. That ties for the best ratio of any midfielder outside Hegland, and he gives you Djurgården exposure from the cheapest slot in the squad. His 73 projected minutes make him a bench-friendly fifth midfielder rather than a starter you rely on. Axel Taonsa (5.8m, VÄS) projects 5.4 this round but falls to 2.9 → 3.2 after it, a one-rounder only.

Best Gameweek 25 forwards

Kristian Lien (10.2m, DIF) is the premium forward to own. He projects 6.5 points against Örgryte with 0.79 expected goals, the highest goal threat of anyone this round, and his program gives 6.5 → 4.4 → 5.4 over [H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG. That is 16.3 over three, the best of any forward. He is 41% owned.

Adrian Svanbäck (7.9m, BKH) is the mid-price hidden gem at 7.4% ownership: 4.9 → 4.1 → 4.7 → 5.0 over [H]DEG → [A]BRO → [H]IFK → [A]AIK, with 0.42 expected goals this round. He outscores the more popular Gustav Lindgren (8.2m, BKH) in each of the next four rounds. Like Rygaard, he drops to 2.4 at [H]ELF in Gameweek 29, so plan the sale for that week.

Jacob Bergström (6.2m, MJA) is the case where this round and the horizon disagree. He projects only 3.4 at home to Hammarby, below Svanbäck. But [A]ÖIS → [H]KFF follows, and his trajectory rises to 4.3 → 4.3. If you already own him, hold. If you are buying a forward this week, Svanbäck is the better buy for Gameweeks 25-28. Leo Oestman (6.0m, ELF) is the cheaper alternative at 3.6 → 3.0 → 4.1 over [H]MFF → [A]AIK → [H]ÖIS.

Paulos Abraham (10.7m, HIF), owned by 41%, projects only 4.0 at [A]MJA. He is not a sell, though. His program improves to 4.8 → 4.5 and then 5.3 → 5.2 → 4.9 from Gameweek 28 behind Hammarby's run, so you can wait on him.

Gameweek 25 captain picks

The captain scores double in Allsvenskan Fantasy, and this week the choice is easy. Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) is the captain. His 8.3 projected points at home to Örgryte is 1.8 clear of anyone else, and doubled it is worth 16.6. Read our guide to picking a fantasy captain for the reasoning behind ranking captains on ceiling.

Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) – 8.3 points, [H]ÖIS
Kristian Lien (10.2m, DIF) – 6.5 points, 0.79 expected goals, [H]ÖIS
Isak Bjerkebo (9.3m, SIR) – 6.0 points, [H]AIK

Captaincy is a plan, not a pick. Hegland also tops Gameweek 26 at 5.8 ([A]IFK, with Victor Lind next at 5.4) and shares the lead in Gameweek 27 with Bjerkebo at 7.3. So Hegland covers all three captaincies, and Bjerkebo is the best second premium to own for the Gameweek 27 armband.

Who to sell before Gameweek 25

Victor Eriksson (6.3m, HIF) is the clearest sale, and 17% still own him. He is listed as unavailable with no return date, and projects 0.8 → 1.0 → 1.0 over Hammarby's [A]MJA → [H]SIR → [A]MFF. Why now: there is nothing to wait for, and he can go straight to a Djurgården defender before the Örgryte game.

Nahir Besara (13.1m, HIF) is the expensive sale. [A]MJA is a reasonable fixture for Hammarby and 3.8 is not a disaster, but at 13.1m he is the most expensive player you can buy and projects only 0.29 points per million on 62 projected minutes. His three-round total of 12.6 is below Victor Lind's 15.1 from the same team at 2.1m less. Why now: Djurgården's program starts this round, and the money tied up in Besara is what pays for a Hegland or Lien before the Örgryte game, not after it. 29% still own him.

Herman Magnusson (4.5m, VÄS), owned by 31%, is a sale you can wait a round on. [H]HBK is a good fixture and his 4.4 is a decent return, so hold him for it. Behind it Västerås SK go [A]DEG → [H]BRO → [A]ÖIS → [A]GAI → [H]HIF and his projection slides 3.2 → 3.6 → 3.5 → 3.2 → 2.8. That makes Gameweek 26 the week to move him on, ideally to a GAIS or Brommapojkarna defender. Henrik Castegren (4.9m, SIR), owned by 29%, dips to 2.8 at Hammarby in Gameweek 26 but recovers to 4.9 against Halmstads BK, so keep him.

Best Loan Rangers team for Gameweek 25

If you still have the Loan Rangers chip, Gameweek 25 is a strong week for it because the club limit is lifted and Djurgården have the round's standout fixture. The one-round optimum fits six Djurgården players into the starting XI:

GK: Jacob Rinne (5.9m, DIF) – 4.8
DEF: Adam Ståhl (6.3m, DIF) – 5.5, Simon Gefvert (5.1m, VÄS) – 5.4, Piotr Johansson (5.7m, DIF) – 5.1, Jacob Une Larsson (5.4m, DIF) – 4.9
MID: Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF, captain) – 8.3, Isak Bjerkebo (9.3m, SIR) – 6.0, Axel Taonsa (5.8m, VÄS) – 5.4, Mikkel Rygaard (8.4m, BKH) – 5.0
FWD: Kristian Lien (10.2m, DIF) – 6.5, Adrian Svanbäck (7.9m, BKH) – 4.9
Bench: David Celic (5.2m, SIR), Tobias Anker (5.2m, SIR), Mamadou Diagne (5.0m, VÄS), Gustav Lindgren (8.2m, BKH)

The XI projects 70.1 points with Hegland's captaincy included. For the exact live optimum, with or without the chip, use the Allsvenskan Fantasy optimal teams solver. It re-solves as the predictions move. The market probabilities show the betting lines behind the Djurgården numbers.

Gameweek 25 transfer summary

In: Djurgården exposure before [H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG, through Hegland, Lien, Ståhl or the budget route via Stensson; Krasniqi as the six-round goalkeeper; Rygaard or Svanbäck as Häcken differentials for Gameweeks 25-28. Out: Victor Eriksson now, Besara to fund the Djurgården move, Magnusson next week. More Allsvenskan analysis is in the Allsvenskan Fantasy preview hub, and our predicted lineups explainer covers how the minutes behind these numbers are built.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 25?

Captain Bo Åsulv Hegland. He projects 8.3 points at home to Örgryte, 1.8 more than anyone else, and he also tops Gameweek 26 and shares the lead in Gameweek 27. Kristian Lien (6.5) and Isak Bjerkebo (6.0) are the alternatives.

Which Djurgården players should I buy for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 25?

Hegland, Kristian Lien and Adam Ståhl are the best Djurgården buys for Gameweek 25. Djurgården have a 78% win probability and a 40% clean sheet chance against Örgryte, and [H]ÖIS → [A]IFK → [H]DEG is the best three-round program in the game at 7.06 expected goals. Jacob Rinne, Jacob Une Larsson and the 4.3m Daniel Stensson are the cheaper ways in.

Best differentials for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 25?

The best differentials are Mikkel Rygaard (1.9% owned) and Adrian Svanbäck (7.4%) from Häcken, and Adam Ståhl (2.8%) from Djurgården. Rygaard and Svanbäck have four good fixtures before Häcken host Elfsborg in Gameweek 29. Oliver Zandén (4.4%) is the flat, low-maintenance defender pick.

Should I sell Nahir Besara before Gameweek 25?

Yes, sell Besara this week. At 13.1m he projects 3.8 points at Mjällby on 62 projected minutes, and Victor Lind outscores him over the next three Gameweeks for 2.1m less. Selling now frees the money for Djurgården assets before their Örgryte game.

Is Gameweek 25 a good week for the Loan Rangers chip in Allsvenskan Fantasy?

Yes. Gameweek 25 is a strong Loan Rangers week because the chip lifts the club limit and Djurgården have the round's standout fixture. The one-round optimum starts six Djurgården players and projects 70.1 points with Hegland as captain.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.