Super Manager Efterår 2026 Round 1 Preview
Super Manager Efterår 2026 Round 1: best buys, captain and hidden gems
The Danish Superligaen returns between 24 and 27 July, and Super Manager Efterår 2026 opens with a blank canvas: no ownership template, no locked-in stars, only the model's freshly updated expected points to guide your first squad. This preview covers who to buy in Round 1, the best captain, the cheap differentials that win leagues early, and which names to leave out. You have 50.0m to spend on 11 starters with no bench, and you can hold a maximum of four players from any single club, so every pick has to earn its place.
One quirk shapes the whole planning horizon: Round 6 is a double round for FC København, FC Midtjylland, AGF and Nordsjælland — and those same four clubs have a blank Round 3. It does not change your Round 1 team, but it is worth knowing before you pour budget into a club that sits out an entire round. You can map the full run yourself on the Super Manager schedule.
Fixture overview — who has the best opening round
The clearest spot of the round is FC København at home to newly promoted Lyngby: 68% win probability, 2.08 expected goals and a 47% clean sheet chance — comfortably the strongest single fixture on the card. København have been the league's best side by the underlying numbers, averaging 2.25 xG and just 1.33 xG conceded per game across their last 15 (a net xG difference of +0.92), while Lyngby have managed only 1.09 xG per game over the same span. Both attacking and defensive FCK assets are firmly in play.
After that the round evens out. Randers host Silkeborg (50% win) and pit a value-packed attack against the leakiest defence of the group — Silkeborg have shipped 2.18 xG per game across their last 15. FC Midtjylland travel to Sønderjyske (48% win, 1.93 expected goals) against a back line conceding 1.79 xG per game, and AGF open at home to Brøndby in the round's marquee clash — AGF own the round's best defensive profile among the home favourites at 1.12 xG conceded per game.
| Match (home side) | Home win% | Home xG | Home clean sheet% |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC København [H] Lyngby | 68% | 2.08 | 47% |
| Randers [H] Silkeborg | 50% | 1.71 | 32% |
| FC Midtjylland [A] Sønderjyske | 48% | 1.93 | 23% |
| AGF [H] Brøndby | 47% | 1.59 | 30% |
| Nordsjælland [A] AC Horsens | 47% | 1.53 | 34% |
Nordsjælland also stand out on the road: AC Horsens have conceded 1.9 xG per game lately, which is exactly why the model rates the visiting attackers so highly. Check the live market probabilities for Super Manager before the deadline in case the lines move over the next fortnight.
Best buys by position for Round 1
Goalkeeper
Dominik Kotarski (5.0m, FCK) is the premium call at 74k projected points, riding that 47% clean sheet chance against Lyngby behind the league's meanest defence. If you would rather bank the budget, Elias Olafsson (5.0m, FCM) projects 65k in Round 1 and climbs to 76k in Round 2 — just remember Midtjylland then blank in Round 3. The best value keeper who keeps playing through that blank is Paul Izzo (3.5m, Randers) at 61k, and his three-round output actually tops the cheap bracket. Line every option up side by side on the Super Manager player picks page.
Defenders
Two FCK defenders headline: Junnosuke Suzuki (4.0m, FCK) at 71k and Rodrigo Huescas (3.5m, FCK) at 65k, both cashing the Lyngby clean sheet. Pairing Kotarski with one of them is a proven correlated stack — you bank the same clean sheet twice. For a differential, Runar Robinsønn Norheim (3.5m, Nordsjælland) tops the position at 72k; he is a genuine attacking full-back with 0.29 xGI/90 across 128 career games, rare output at this price, and he attacks a Horsens side leaking 1.9 xG per game.
The budget enabler is Wessel Dammers (3.0m, Randers) — 65k for Round 1 at 22 points per million, and he keeps playing through the Round 3 blank. One to plan ahead for: Mikael Divkovic (4.5m, Brøndby) is quiet in Round 1 (44k) but carries the position's best six-round weighted score and jumps to 68k and 70k in Rounds 2–3 — a "buy next round" defender rather than an opening-day starter.
Midfielders
Mohamed Elyounoussi (7.0m, FCK) is the standout pick of the entire round at 125k — more than 30k clear of any other player at any position. The veteran has produced 0.42 xGI/90 across a 427-game career and arrives red-hot, with 1 goal and 4 assists worth 5.75 combined xG and xA across his last 10 appearances. He walks into a home banker against the league's weakest side and is the anchor your team should be built around.
Behind him, value is everywhere. Elies Mahmoud (4.0m, Randers) projects 91k, takes Randers' penalties, offers 23 points per million and is in sharp form (3 goals, 2 assists in his last 10). Nicolai Vallys (6.0m, Brøndby) is a slower Round 1 start at 65k but carries the position's best six-round weighted score (319) and is also on penalties — a genuine set-and-forget hold. Jann-Fiete Arp (6.0m, OB) is quiet in Round 1 (67k) but explodes to 114k and 96k in Rounds 2–3, backed by a strong 0.59 career xGI/90, so he is more of a "buy now, cash in soon" play. Cheaper still, Kevin Kirkegaard (3.5m, AC Horsens) at 60k offers elite value most managers will skip.
Forwards
Dorian Hanza (4.0m, Viborg) tops Round 1 forwards at 87k as Viborg open the season at home to OB on 24 July. Tobias Bech (7.5m, AGF) is the premium striker at 87k with a strong 298 weighted score and 0.41 career xGI/90. The pick that has climbed most is Nikolas Ganaus (5.5m, OB): 79k in Round 1 but 110k and 93k in Rounds 2–3 for the position's best six-round weighted total (321), backed by 0.43 xGI/90 — OB play all of the first three rounds, making their attackers ideal early-season set-and-forget picks. The cheapest route into forward points is Warren Caddy (3.5m, Randers) at 83k and a huge 24 points per million.
A note on the premium end: Franculino (9.5m, FCM) is the most expensive forward in the game and projects 76k for Round 1, but the model only forecasts him around 36 minutes — a real rotation risk — and at 8 points per million he is the weakest value among the premium strikers. His 0.72 career xGI/90 is elite and he takes Midtjylland's penalties, so he is a fine longer-term target, just not the sharpest use of budget on opening day.
Best captaincy picks for Round 1
Elyounoussi (FCK) is the clear captain. His 125k projection towers over the field, he has the round's best fixture, and doubling it gives you the highest-ceiling armband by a distance. Two off-template alternatives: Mahmoud (Randers) at 91k, who carries penalty upside against a Silkeborg defence conceding 2.18 xG per game, and Hanza (Viborg) at 87k in the season's very first fixture. Bech (87k) rounds out the realistic ceiling group. Captaincy is a plan, not a one-off — Elyounoussi stays a premium option deep into the run and into the Round 6 double, which only strengthens the case to own him now.
Hidden gems and differentials
Ownership has not opened yet, so the early edge comes from the cheap, high-efficiency names most managers overlook while chasing the obvious premiums:
- Adrian Justinussen (2.5m, AC Horsens) — 69k at a league-best 28 points per million, and now projected to start rather than come off the bench. At this price he is almost a free roll.
- Cyril Edudzi (2.5m, Randers) — 68k and 27 points per million in a Randers side facing the leakiest defence of the round.
- Jay-Roy Grot (3.5m, OB) — 67k now, then 90k and 77k in Rounds 2–3, backed by 0.47 career xGI/90. A budget forward with a genuinely strong three-round run.
- Runar Robinsønn Norheim (3.5m, Nordsjælland) — the differential defender, top of the position and attacking from the back.
Who to sell / avoid
With no template to fade yet, "avoid" means the traps to keep out of your opening squad. Steer clear of Lyngby assets — they open away at FCK having produced just 1.09 xG per game recently, and their goalkeeper projects around 10k. Be cautious with Silkeborg defenders (2.18 xG conceded per game) travelling to Randers. And resist over-spending on Franculino for Round 1 alone — his projected rotation and 8 points per million make him the weakest value among the premium forwards; cheaper strikers give you similar opening-round output and free budget for Elyounoussi.
Building the squad
A sensible frame: anchor on Elyounoussi and captain him, pair Kotarski with an FCK defender to double the Lyngby clean sheet, then fill the remaining spots with the high-value cluster from Randers, OB and Horsens so you can still afford a premium or two up top. Remember the four-per-club cap — you cannot stack more than four FCK players even if the fixture tempts you. When you are ready to fine-tune, the solver builds the exact highest-points legal squad on the optimal teams for Super Manager page, and you can sanity-check the expected elevens on the predicted lineups page.
For more rounds and analysis as the season unfolds, follow our Super Manager preview hub and our wider fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Super Manager Round 1?
Mohamed Elyounoussi (FCK) is the clear captain. He projects 125k expected points, more than 30k clear of any other player, and has the round's best fixture at home to Lyngby with a 68% win probability and a 47% clean sheet chance. Elies Mahmoud (Randers) and Dorian Hanza (Viborg) are the differential alternatives.
Which budget players are best for Round 1?
The standout cheap picks are Adrian Justinussen (2.5m, AC Horsens) at 28 points per million, Cyril Edudzi (2.5m, Randers) at 27, Warren Caddy (3.5m, Randers) at 24, and Wessel Dammers (3.0m, Randers) at 22 in defence. All four free up budget for a premium like Elyounoussi up top.
Who are the best hidden gems and differentials?
Runar Robinsønn Norheim (3.5m, Nordsjælland) is the top differential defender and attacks from the back. Jay-Roy Grot and Nikolas Ganaus give OB two forwards with strong three-round programmes, and the sub-3m Horsens and Randers picks deliver elite points-per-million value while most managers chase the obvious premiums.
Which players should I avoid in Round 1?
Avoid Lyngby assets (away at FCK with only 1.09 xG per game recently) and Silkeborg defenders (2.18 xG conceded per game) travelling to Randers. Also think twice about spending 9.5m on Franculino for Round 1 alone — his projected rotation and weak value mean cheaper forwards deliver similar opening-round output.
How does the Round 6 double affect my early picks?
FC København, FC Midtjylland, AGF and Nordsjælland play twice in Round 6 but sit out Round 3 entirely. It does not change your Round 1 team, but if you build around those clubs, plan cover for the blank Round 3 before Round 6's double.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool