Serie Manager Efterår 2026 Round 1 Preview

Serie Manager Efterår 2026 Round 1: best buys, captain picks and hidden gems

Serie Manager Efterår 2026 is the Holdet.dk fantasy game built on Italy's Serie A, and Round 1 now opens on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 18:30 with Inter - Monza and Udinese - Como. The round then runs across Sunday and closes on Monday 24 August with Roma - Fiorentina.

Round 1 is the one week where every manager starts from an identical blank slate. There is no template to copy and no ownership to hide behind, so the opening eleven is decided purely by projections. This preview covers the best buys by position, the standout captain options, the budget enablers that pay for a premium forward, the popular picks that the model says are traps, and a full recommended starting eleven.

How Serie Manager works

You build an eleven-man team with no bench and no chips. Each transfer costs a fee of 1% of the player's value, and you may own a maximum of four players from any single club. Legal formations run from a single goalkeeper up to three forwards: 1-5-4-1, 1-5-3-2, 1-4-5-1, 1-4-4-2, 1-4-3-3, 1-3-5-2 and 1-3-4-3.

Because there is no bench, all eleven of your players score every round. A weak eleventh man is a visible cost, not a hidden one, so the spots after the obvious premiums are where leagues are actually won. There are 16 rounds left in the Efterår half-season.

One structural point shapes this entire round. Holdet.dk uses per-match deadlines, so for the two Saturday 18:30 kick-offs the starting elevens are already known before you have to commit. That makes the Inter and Como projections unusually reliable this week - and it is why one very popular Como defender is a clear avoid below.

Best opening Serie A fixtures

Two of the three friendliest opening fixtures are against newly promoted opposition. Frosinone, Monza and Venezia are the three sides with no Serie A record last season, and Inter and Juventus both draw one of them.

Inter's 58% clean sheet probability is the highest of the round and their 2.52 expected goals the highest attacking number, so they are the one club worth doubling or tripling up on. Last season Inter posted 1.90 expected goals per game against 0.90 conceded - a net non-penalty expected goal difference of +0.98, the best in the division - with 18 clean sheets. Juventus were right behind on +0.95.

Below the top four fixtures, Milan [A]Torino (54% win) and Como [A]Udinese (53% win, 42% clean sheet) are the value plays. Como are the quietly excellent defensive team here: they kept 19 clean sheets last season, more than any other side in Serie A, and conceded just 0.89 expected goals per game. Napoli travel to Genoa at 53% but their programme sours quickly.

Teams to avoid entirely this week: Monza, Frosinone, Fiorentina, Sassuolo, Genoa, Udinese, Torino and Lazio are all under 30% to win. You can check every fixture yourself on the Serie Manager schedule page, and the underlying bookmaker numbers on the market probabilities page.

Looking past Round 1

Two clubs hold up across the whole opening month, and two do not. Inter run [H]Monza → [A]Cagliari → [H]Napoli → [H]Udinese at 80%, 58%, 52% and 68%. Juventus run [A]Frosinone → [H]Parma → [H]Milan → [A]Sassuolo at 67%, 68%, 50% and 50%. Roma are close behind at 61%, 62%, 44% and 49%.

Milan are the trap. [A]Torino → [H]Venezia → [A]Juventus → [A]Lazio reads 54%, 58%, 23%, 34% - two good rounds then a cliff. Buy Milan players for Rounds 1 and 2 and plan to move them on. Napoli are worse: 53%, 39%, 22%, 47%.

Goalkeepers

Josep Martinez (5.0m, Inter) - 100k xP, the best goalkeeper score in the round by a clear margin, on the back of that league-leading 58% clean sheet chance. His 6-round weighted score of 293k is also the highest of any keeper, so this is not a one-week punt.

Marco Carnesecchi (4.0m, Atalanta) - 76k xP at a 20% discount, and the same 241k weighted score as Milan's Maignan. He started 37 of Atalanta's 38 league games last season, so there is no rotation question. At 19k per million he is the best value in the position.

Jean Butez (4.0m, Como) - also 76k, and the pick if you want to bank on that 19-clean-sheet Como defence rather than Atalanta's attack. Como's 0.89 expected goals conceded per game was second only to Juventus.

At the bottom end, Filip Stankovic (3.0m, Venezia) returns 60k at home to Lecce - the cheapest keeper worth starting, freeing 2.0m against Josep Martinez. Roma's Mile Svilar (4.5m) is a fine alternative on 77k who played all 3,420 league minutes last season.

Defenders

Federico Dimarco (5.5m, Inter) is the single best defender in the game and the pick of the round at any position for value. He returns 149k xP - more than every midfielder - at 27k per million, on 85 projected minutes with a 55% clean sheet share. The reason is his attacking output: last season he produced 16 assists and 11.15 expected assists from defence, plus 7 goals. He is also the most-owned player in the game so far, which tells you the early field agrees.

Yann Aurel Bisseck (5.0m, Inter) - 104k xP on 89 projected minutes and a 58% clean sheet probability. Pairing him with Josep Martinez doubles down on the same Inter shut-out, and against a promoted side projected for 0.54 goals that correlation is worth taking.

Andrea Cambiaso (4.0m, Juventus) - 84k in Round 1 but the better multi-round hold, with a weighted score of 250k against Bisseck's 240k at a million less. His trajectory is 84k → 81k → 56k, because Juventus keep good fixtures while Inter's dip in Rounds 2 and 3.

Gleison Bremer (4.5m, Juventus) on 85k and Alessandro Bastoni (4.5m, Inter) on 83k are the alternatives if you want a third route into the same two defences.

The budget defender to buy for this round only

Kaiki (2.5m, Como) is the best price-per-point pick in the entire game at 31k per million. He returns 76k - more than defenders costing twice as much - on 88 projected minutes, and because Como's Saturday 18:30 kick-off falls after a confirmed lineup, that start is locked rather than estimated. He started and played at least 75 minutes in each of his last six league games - five of them the full 90 - and averaged close to six combined clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles per game, which is where a cheap defender's points actually come from.

Buy him for this round specifically. His projection drops to 25k in Round 2 as his minutes are forecast to fall to 48, so this is a one-round hold - and at 2.5m the fee to sell him again is just 25k. That is the whole case: a 25k cost to capture 76k. Jacobo Ramon (3.0m, Como) on 58k is the same idea one step down.

Midfielders

Kenan Yildiz (7.5m, Juventus) - 113k xP and the top-scoring midfielder for the round, with the best midfield weighted score at 320k. He played 2,838 league minutes last season for 10 goals and 6 assists from 8.17 expected goals and 9.67 expected assists, so the underlying numbers back the output. He is nailed, and Juventus have the best four-round run in the league.

Chico Conceicao (6.0m, Juventus) - 110k for 1.5m less than his team-mate, and a 302k weighted score. His trajectory of 110k → 95k → 67k is the flattest of any premium midfielder. If you can only afford one Juventus midfielder, the model marginally prefers Yildiz; if you want both a Juventus midfielder and a premium forward, Conceicao is the enabler.

Nico Paz (5.0m, Como) - 98k, and the second most-owned player in the game already. He took 121 shots last season, the most of any midfielder here, for 12 goals and 6 assists across 33 starts. His projection is spiky (98k → 46k → 76k) because Como's fixtures alternate, so treat him as a strong Round 1 buy you will need to reassess.

Samuel Chukwueze (4.0m, Milan) - 96k at 24k per million, the best combination of price and ceiling in midfield. His two-round total of 188k is outstanding, but note the collapse after that: 96k → 92k → 32k. This is explicitly a two-round buy, matching Milan's fixture cliff at Juventus in Round 3.

Federico Bernardeschi (4.0m, Bologna) - 88k, and the better choice if you would rather not plan an exit. His weighted score of 247k beats Chukwueze's 238k because his Round 3 holds up at 85k rather than falling off. He also takes Bologna's penalties with an 82% share.

Andy Diouf (3.5m, Inter) - 87k at 25k per million, and the cheapest way to buy into the best fixture of the round. He carries a 52% clean sheet contribution from an Inter midfield berth on 79 projected minutes.

The budget midfielder

Gianluca Gaetano (3.0m, Atalanta) at 26k per million is the best-value midfielder in the game and the pick most managers will miss. He returns 79k on 70 projected minutes at home to Sassuolo, and his 215k weighted score is remarkable for the price. He is not an attacking source - his output last season was modest - but he started 21 games, has just moved from Cagliari to a far better team, and his points come from guaranteed minutes plus a consistent four to nine defensive actions per game. At 3.0m the fee is 30k.

Santiago Pierotti (2.5m, Lecce) on 60k and Alphadjo Cissè (2.0m, Milan) on 44k are the genuine bargain-basement options if you need to free up money for two premium forwards.

Forwards

Lautaro Martinez (10.5m, Inter) is the highest-scoring player in the game at 191k xP, on 0.75 expected goals and a 78-minute projection against a promoted side. His 437k weighted score is also the highest in the game. The honest caveat: at 10.5m his 18k per million is poor, and he consumes more than a fifth of the budget. The mathematically optimal Round 1 eleven does not contain him, because the 5.5m saved buys more points elsewhere. Own him if you want the highest single-player ceiling and the best captain; skip him if you want the strongest eleven.

Donyell Malen (7.0m, Roma) - 141k, and the best forward in the game on a multi-round view with a 423k weighted score. He is also the best striker here on last season's underlying numbers: 14 goals from 13.92 expected goals in 1,478 minutes, a 0.85 expected-goals-per-90 rate and 0.99 expected goal involvements per 90, from 18 starts in 18 appearances. He takes Roma's penalties on an 88% share, and his trajectory of 141k → 137k → 102k barely declines.

Francesco Pio Esposito (7.0m, Inter) - also 141k, at the same price, on 0.52 expected goals. Same price and same round score as Malen, but a 357k weighted total against Malen's 423k, so Malen is the better hold. Esposito is the pick if you specifically want a second Inter attacker alongside Lautaro.

Randal Kolo Muani (5.0m, Juventus) - 127k at 25k per million and a 334k weighted score. This is the best premium-for-cheap in the game: he returns two thirds of Lautaro's Round 1 points for less than half the price, and Juventus have the better four-round programme. If you build one forward line around a single player, make it this one.

Goncalo Ramos (5.0m, Milan) - 128k at 26k per million, marginally the best forward score for the money in Round 1. His two-round total of 236k is superb but the trajectory reads 128k → 108k → 42k. A two-round buy, sold before Milan visit Juventus. He also takes Milan's penalties at a 77% share.

Paulo Dybala (4.5m, Roma) - 117k at 26k per million and a 312k weighted score, which is exceptional for a sub-5m forward. His 0.66 expected goal involvements per 90 last season matched Lautaro's rate. The risk is real and worth stating: he started only 15 of his 34 league appearances last season, so if Roma rest him the projection does not hold. The model has him at 77 minutes and a 98% start likelihood for this round.

Giacomo Raspadori (4.0m, Atalanta) - 105k at 26k per million, and the budget forward of the round. Same rotation caveat as Dybala: 7 starts in 25 appearances last season, though he is projected at 84 minutes here. Akor Adams (3.5m, Venezia) on 84k is the cheapest forward worth starting.

Captaincy for Round 1

Lautaro Martinez is the captain. At 191k he is 42k clear of the next-best option, and the fixture behind that number is the friendliest in the round: Inter at home to a promoted Monza side projected for 0.54 goals. There is no clever argument for anyone else.

If you did not buy him, Dimarco (149k) is the next-highest score and captains from the same fixture at half the price. Behind him, Malen (141k) and Pio Esposito (141k) are level, with Malen the better pick if your armband plan runs beyond this week - he stays above 100k for four straight rounds, while Inter's numbers dip in Rounds 2 and 3.

Note that Malen's three-round total of 380k is actually the highest in the table - ahead of Lautaro's 378k at 3.5m less. Over a season that gap compounds. Cross-check the round-by-round numbers on the Serie Manager player picks page before you lock the armband, and see our guide to picking a fantasy captain for the floor-versus-ceiling framework.

Who to avoid in Round 1

Three of the most-bought players in the game are projected badly, and one of them is close to a guaranteed zero.

Yan Couto (3.0m, Como) - avoid, and sell if you have already picked him. He is currently the fifth most-owned player in Serie Manager, and the model projects him at 5 minutes and 4k xP. This is not an estimate that might shift: Como's Saturday 18:30 kick-off means the confirmed starting eleven is known before the deadline, and he is not in it. Round 2 is barely better at 11 minutes. If you want Como defensive points, Kaiki at 2.5m and 76k is the same club, cheaper, and starting.

Charles De Ketelaere (4.5m, Atalanta) - the second most-owned midfielder in the game, projected for 21 minutes and 31k xP at 7k per million. He is a substitute in this projection, not a starter, and Round 2 only lifts him to 29 minutes. Team-mate Gaetano at 3.0m returns 79k - more than double the points for two thirds of the price.

El Bilal Touré (3.0m, Parma) - a legitimate Round 1 pick at 59k, but understand what you are buying. His projection collapses to 15k in Round 2 and his weighted score of 113k is the worst of any popular midfielder. Parma are 37% to beat Cagliari at home and then travel to Juventus. If you take him, take him for one round.

Rasmus Højlund (8.0m, Napoli) - not a bad player, just badly priced here. 103k for 8.0m is 13k per million, the worst ratio of any premium forward, and Napoli's fixtures fall away fast (53%, 39%, 22%). Kolo Muani gives you 127k for 5.0m. Spend the 3.0m difference on a defender.

Buy these next round, not now

Three players have excellent projections that do not start until Round 2. Buying them this week means paying for a fixture that is not there yet.

Armand Laurienté (3.5m, Sassuolo) - 46k in Round 1 away at Atalanta, then 99k in Round 2 at home to Torino. His 244k weighted score is better than most 5m midfielders, but the entry point is next week.

Moise Kean (3.5m, Fiorentina) - 42k at Roma, then 82k at home to Frosinone and 76k after that. A 235k weighted score from a 3.5m forward is excellent value; just not this Sunday.

Nicolo Zaniolo (3.0m, Udinese) - 44k, then 75k and 60k. His 200k weighted score at 3.0m is one of the best in the game on a multi-round view.

Recommended Round 1 squad

This is the strongest legal eleven the projections support, balancing this round against the next few rather than maximising Round 1 alone. It uses a 1-3-4-3 formation, spends everything the solver is allowed to, and takes at most two players from any club - well inside the four-per-club cap.

Total: 1,167k projected for Round 1, 3,130k weighted across six rounds. Captain Malen, or Dimarco if you prefer the Inter clean sheet.

Note what this eleven does not contain: Lautaro Martinez. Leaving out the 10.5m forward is what makes a three-man forward line of Malen, Ramos and Kolo Muani affordable, and those three return 396k in Round 1 between them against his 191k alone. If you want Lautaro anyway, the cleanest funding route is to drop Nico Paz to Andy Diouf (3.5m) and Ramos to Raspadori (4.0m).

Two known exit points are built in. Chukwueze and Ramos both fall off a cliff in Round 3 when Milan visit Juventus, so plan to sell both after Round 2. Kaiki is a one-round hold whose 25k fee makes the exit trivial. Everything else can be held through the opening month.

The live solver will always beat a written article, because it re-solves against the current numbers: see the optimal teams for Serie Manager for the exact optimum at the moment you read this, and the predicted lineups for Serie Manager to confirm every starter before the deadline.

Budget breakdown

The recommended eleven splits as 5.0m on the goalkeeper, 12.0m across three defenders, 16.0m across four midfielders and 17.0m on three forwards. That is a deliberately forward-heavy shape, and it works because Serie Manager has no bench: with only eleven scoring slots, the marginal 1.0m is better spent on a forward projected above 120k than on a fourth defender projected near 60k.

The three cheapest picks - Kaiki at 2.5m, Gaetano at 3.0m and Cambiaso at 4.0m - cost 9.5m combined and return 239k, which is more than Lautaro Martinez returns for 10.5m. That is the whole argument for spreading the budget in a no-bench game, and it is where most Round 1 teams go wrong.

More rounds and more games: our Serie Manager preview hub, the Premier Manager previews for the English equivalent, our Holdet managerspil strategy guide, and an explainer on what expected points (xP) actually means.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Serie Manager Round 1?

Lautaro Martinez. He projects at 191k xP, 42k clear of the next option, with Inter at home to newly promoted Monza in the best fixture of the round - 80% win probability, 2.52 expected goals and a league-leading 58% clean sheet chance. If you do not own him, Federico Dimarco (149k) captains from the same fixture at 5.5m, and Donyell Malen (141k) is the better armband if you are planning several rounds ahead, since his three-round total of 380k is the highest in the game.

Which budget players are best for Serie Manager Round 1?

Kaiki (2.5m, Como) is the standout at 31k per million, returning 76k on 88 projected minutes with a confirmed start. Gianluca Gaetano (3.0m, Atalanta) gives you 79k at 26k per million and a 215k weighted score. Giacomo Raspadori (4.0m, Atalanta) is the budget forward on 105k, and Filip Stankovic (3.0m, Venezia) the cheapest startable goalkeeper on 60k. Together those four cost 12.5m and return 320k.

Who should I avoid in Serie Manager Round 1?

Yan Couto (3.0m, Como) above all - he is the fifth most-owned player in the game but projects at just 5 minutes and 4k xP, and because Como kick off on Saturday at 18:30 the confirmed eleven is known before the deadline and he is not in it. Charles De Ketelaere (4.5m, Atalanta) is projected for 21 minutes and 31k. Rasmus Højlund (8.0m, Napoli) is not badly projected at 103k but is badly priced at 13k per million with Napoli's fixtures worsening fast.

Which players should I buy next round instead of now?

Armand Laurienté (3.5m, Sassuolo) jumps from 46k in Round 1 to 99k in Round 2 once Sassuolo are home to Torino. Moise Kean (3.5m, Fiorentina) goes from 42k at Roma to 82k at home to Frosinone. Nicolo Zaniolo (3.0m, Udinese) rises from 44k to 75k. All three have strong six-round weighted scores, but their Round 1 fixtures are too tough to justify paying the entry fee this week.

How many players can I have from one club in Serie Manager?

Four. That cap makes an Inter block viable - Josep Martinez, Dimarco, Bisseck and Lautaro Martinez would all be legal together against Monza, and correlating a goalkeeper with defenders from the same 58% clean sheet fixture is a sound way to concentrate risk when the fixture justifies it. The recommended eleven above only doubles up, because spreading the budget scored better across six rounds.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool