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null, "p_at_20": 0.5, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.2978, "top50_bias": 33.4099, "top50_mae": 81.5969, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 25.98, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 22.6289, "n": 203, "se": 3.5712}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 14, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": 29.2915, "captain_pts": 113.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 55.0952, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.3, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.5754, "top50_bias": 47.95, "top50_mae": 94.6933, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": -12.18, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 20.966, "captain_pts": 113.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 55.6997, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.55, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.0906, "top50_bias": 64.8109, "top50_mae": 100.9201, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": -20.54, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 0.6045, "n": 203, "se": 3.7822}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 15, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": 0.2649, "captain_pts": 119.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 33.7541, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.45, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.6607, "top50_bias": 4.1815, "top50_mae": 59.2215, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 28.28, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 36.2131, "captain_pts": 414.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 55.6684, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.5, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.3002, "top50_bias": 17.4629, "top50_mae": 68.5087, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 35.32, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 21.9143, "n": 203, "se": 3.1636}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 16, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": -11.8476, "captain_pts": 230.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 37.493, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.4, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.6131, "top50_bias": -6.2729, "top50_mae": 49.5557, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 39.02, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 31.2217, "captain_pts": 350.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 43.6991, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.65, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.6393, "top50_bias": 23.9769, "top50_mae": 52.8347, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 39.78, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 6.2062, "n": 203, "se": 3.9154}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 17, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": -12.846, "captain_pts": 124.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 34.7954, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.5, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.6604, "top50_bias": -15.1987, "top50_mae": 49.3507, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 48.5, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 29.7431, "captain_pts": 410.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 40.5781, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.75, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.7009, "top50_bias": 13.8401, "top50_mae": 48.8495, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 52.26, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 5.7827, "n": 203, "se": 3.952}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 18, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": -3.048, "captain_pts": 168.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 31.6964, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.3, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.6055, "top50_bias": 9.44, "top50_mae": 46.9925, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 24.92, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 32.2849, "captain_pts": 279.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 42.557, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.7, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.3602, "top50_bias": 10.7347, "top50_mae": 46.8377, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 46.12, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 10.8605, "n": 203, "se": 3.4507}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 19, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": 31.3283, "captain_pts": -59.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 55.5317, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.35, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.646, "top50_bias": 49.6647, "top50_mae": 86.3, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": -15.56, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 30.486, "captain_pts": 110.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 60.8552, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.4, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.0366, "top50_bias": 74.6422, "top50_mae": 97.8826, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": -29.4, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 5.3235, "n": 203, "se": 3.6941}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 20, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": 36.5041, "captain_pts": 103.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 56.162, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.45, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.7411, "top50_bias": 38.39, "top50_mae": 86.5944, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": -6.44, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 24.2965, "captain_pts": 143.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 55.6907, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.45, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": -0.0698, "top50_bias": 97.4922, "top50_mae": 105.5341, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": -55.7, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": -0.4713, "n": 203, "se": 4.2219}}}}, "status": "scored"}, {"reason": null, "round": 21, "sources": {"naive_prior_mean": {"bias": -10.2004, "captain_pts": 122.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 35.083, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.5, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": null, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.7451, "top50_bias": -21.6305, "top50_mae": 59.5989, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 52.02, "vs": {}}, "tft": {"bias": 27.3042, "captain_pts": 25.0, "coverage": 1.0, "mae": 47.6236, "n": 203, "n_45": null, "p_at_20": 0.5, "pmins_mae": null, "pmins_n": 0, "ratio_45": null, "spearman": 0.3067, "top50_bias": 5.1799, "top50_mae": 65.5886, "top50_n": 50, "top50_return": 47.22, "vs": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mean": 12.5406, "n": 203, "se": 3.3295}}}}, "status": "scored"}], "sport": "Cycling", "summary": {"naive_prior_mean": {"mae": 43.129, "rounds": 19, "spearman": 0.602, "tft_top50_mae_same_rounds": 72.231, "top50_mae": 72.08}, "rounds_scored": 20, "rounds_unscored": 1, "tft": {"mae": 45.261, "rounds": 20, "spearman": 0.338, "tft_top50_mae_same_rounds": 71.624, "top50_mae": 71.624}}}, {"game": "WSL Fantasy 2026/2027", "live": true, "provider": "wsl", "rounds": [{"reason": "no actual points recorded for this round", "round": 1, "sources": {}, "status": "unscored"}, {"reason": "no actual points recorded for this round", "round": 2, "sources": {}, "status": "unscored"}, {"reason": "no actual points recorded for this round", "round": 3, "sources": {}, "status": "unscored"}, {"reason": "no actual points recorded for this round", "round": 4, "sources": {}, "status": "unscored"}, {"reason": "no actual points recorded for this round", "round": 5, "sources": {}, "status": "unscored"}], "sport": "Football", "summary": {"rounds_scored": 0, "rounds_unscored": 5}}], "method_version": 1, "sources": {"fpl_ep": "FPL's own expected points (ep_next)", "naive_prior_mean": "Naive: mean of earlier rounds", "tft": "TheFantasyTool (deadline pP)"}, "top_k": 50, "unscorable": [{"game": "Elevens Premier League 2026/2027", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Elevens World Cup Fantasy 2026", "live": false, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Fifa World Cup Fantasy 2026", "live": false, "sport": "Football", "why": "deadline value not verified for 100% of players (deadline calendar could not be verified)"}, {"game": "Golf Manager 2026", "live": true, "sport": "Golf", "why": "no deadline seal recorded"}, {"game": "NFL Full PPR 2026", "live": true, "sport": "NFL", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "NFL Half PPR 2026", "live": true, "sport": "NFL", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Sofascore Bundesliga 26/27", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Sofascore Champions League 26/27", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Sofascore LaLiga 26/27", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Sofascore Nations League 26/27", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Sofascore Premier League 26/27", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Sofascore Serie A 26/27", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Tattico Fantasy Serie A 2026/2027", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Tour de France Fantasy 2026", "live": false, "sport": "Cycling", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "Tourmanager 26", "live": false, "sport": "Cycling", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "UCL Fantasy 2026/2027", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "UWCL Fantasy 2026/2027", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "VM Fantasy 26", "live": false, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}, {"game": "VM Manager 2026", "live": false, "sport": "Football", "why": "deadline value not verified for 100% of players (deadline calendar could not be verified)"}, {"game": "VM-Elvan 2026", "live": false, "sport": "Football", "why": "deadline value not verified for 100% of players (deadline calendar could not be verified)"}, {"game": "WSL Fantasy 2026/2027", "live": true, "sport": "Football", "why": "no actual points recorded for this round"}], "updated_at": "2026-10-14 06:15:09"}